Sam Altman:
Today we have Elon Musk. Elon, thank you for joining us.
Elon Musk:
Thanks for having me.
Sam Altman:
So we want to spend the time today talking about your view of the future and what people should work on.
So to start off, could you tell us you famously said when you were younger, there were five problems that you thought were most important for you to work on. If you were 22 today, what would the five problems that you would think about working on be?
Elon Musk:
Well, first of all, I think if somebody is doing something that is useful to the rest of society, I think that's a good thing, like it doesn't have to change the world like, you know.
If you're doing something that has high value to people, and frankly, even if it's like just a little game or you know some improvement in photo sharing or something, if it has a small amount of good for a large number of people, that's I mean, I think that's fine.
Like so it doesn't need to be change the world just to be good.
But you know, in terms of things that I think are most likely to affect the future of humanity, I think AI is probably the single biggest item in the near term that's likely to affect humanity.
So it's very important that we have the advent of AI in a good way, that it's something that if you could look at the crystal ball and see the future, you would like that outcome, because it is something that could go wrong as we've talked about many times. And so we really need to make sure it goes right
That's I think AI, working on AI, and making sure it's great future. That's the most important thing I think right now, the most pressing item
Second, then obviously anything to do with genetics.
If you can actually solve genetic diseases, if you can prevent dementia or Alzheimer's or something like that, with genetic reprogramming, that would be wonderful. So I think genetics might be the sort of second most important item.
I think having a high bandwidth interface to the brain, like we're currently bandwidth limited. We have a digital tertiary self, in the form of our email capabilities, our computers, phones, applications. We are effectively superhuman.
But we are extremely bad with constraint in that interface between the cortex and the tertiary digital form of yourself. And helping solve that bandwidth constraint would be, I think, very important for the future as well.
Sam Altman:
So one of the I think most common questions, I hear young people, ambitious young people ask, is I want to be the next Elon Musk, how do I do that?
Obviously the next Elon Musk will work on very different things than you did. But what have you done, or what did you do when you were younger, that you think sort of set you up to have a big impact?
Elon Musk:
Well, I think first of all, I should say that I do not expect to be involved in all these things.
So the five things that I thought about the time in college quite a long time ago, 25 years ago, you know, being you know, making life multi-planetary, accelerating the transition to sustainable energy, the Internet's broadly speaking, and then genetics and AI.
I think I didn't expect to be involved in all of those things.
I actually at the time in college, I sort of thought helping with electrification of cars was how I would start out. And that's actually what I worked on as an intern was advanced ultra capacitors, to see if they there would be a breakthrough relative to batteries for energy storage in cars.
And then, when I came out to go to Stanford, that's what I was going to be doing my grad studies on, was working on advanced energy storage technologies for electric cars.
And I put that on hold to start an internet company in 95, because there does seem to be like a time for particular technologies when they're at a steep point in the inflection curve. And I didn't want to you know, do a PhD at Stanford, and then and watch it all happen. And I wasn't entirely certain that the technology I'd be working on would actually succeed.
Like you can get a Doctor on many things that ultimately do not have a practical bearing on the world.
And I really was just trying to be useful. That's the optimization, it's like what can I do that would actually be useful?
Sam Altman:
Do you think people that want to be useful today should get PhD's?
Elon Musk:
Mostly not.
Some yes, but mostly not.
Sam Altman:
So what is the best way to be useful?
How should someone figure out how they can be most useful?
Elon Musk:
Whatever this thing is that you're trying to create, what would be the utility delta compared to the current state of the art, times how many people it would affect.
So that's why I think, having something that makes a big difference, but affects a sort of small to moderate number of people is great, as is something that makes even a small difference but affects a vast number of people.
Like the area, you know under the curve.
Yeah, exactly, the area under the curve would actually be roughly similar for those two things. So it's actually really about... yeah, just trying to be useful and matter.
Sam Altman:
And then, when you're trying to estimate probability of success, so you say, this thing will be really useful, good area under the curve.
I guess to use the example of SpaceX, when you made the go decision that you were actually going to do that, this was kind of a very crazy thing at the time?
Elon Musk:
Very crazy for sure. Yeah. People were not sure, I've seen that. But I kind of agree, I agreed with them that it was quite crazy.
If the objective was to achieve the best risk adjusted return, starting a company is insane, but that was not my objective. I certainly come to the conclusion that if something didn't happen to improve rocket technology, we would be stuck on Earth forever.
And the big aerospace companies had just had no interest in radical innovation. All they wanted to do is trying to make their old technology slightly better every year. And in fact, sometimes it would actually get worse.
And particularly in rockets is pretty bad, like in 69 we were able to go to the Moon with the Saturn 5, and then the space shuttle could only take people to low earth orbit, and then the space shuttle retired.
I mean that trend is basically trends to zero.
If people think technology just automatically gets better every year, but it actually doesn't, it only gets better if smart people work like crazy to make it better. That's how any technology actually gets better
And by itself, technology if people don't work in, it actually will decline.
I mean, you can look at the history of civilizations, many civilizations, and look at say ancient Egypt, where they were able to build these incredible pyramids, and then they basically forgot how to build pyramids. And then, even hieroglyphics they forgot how to read hieroglyphics.
So we look at Rome, and how they were able to build these incredible roadways and aqueducts and indoor plumbing, and they forgot how to do all of those things.
And there are many such examples in history. So I think you should always bear in mind, that you know, entropy is not on your side.
Sam Altman:
One thing I really like about you, is you are unusually fearless and willing to go in the face of other people telling you something that's crazy. And I know a lot of pretty crazy people, you still stand out.
Where does that come from? Or how do you think about making a decision when everyone tells you this is a crazy idea? Or where do you get the internal strength to do that?
Elon Musk:
Well, first of all, I'd say I actually think I feel fear quite strongly.
So it's not as though I just have the absence of fear, I feel it quite strongly. But there are just times when something is important enough, you believe in it enough, that you do it in spite of fear.
Sam Altman:
So speaking of important things...
Elon Musk:
Like people shouldn't think, well, I feel fear about this, and therefore I shouldn't do it. It's normal to feel fear, like you'd have to definitely something mentally wrong if you didn't feel fear.
Sam Altman:
So you just feel it, and let the importance of it drive you to do it anyway.
Elon Musk:
Yeah, you know actually something that can be helpful is fatalism, some degree. If you just accept the probabilities, then that diminishes fear.
So when starting SpaceX, I thought the odds of success were less than 10 percent. And I just accepted that actually probably I would just lose everything.
But that maybe would make some progress, if we could just move the ball forward, even if we die, maybe some other company could pick up the baton and keep moving it forward. So that would still do some good.
Yeah, same with Tesla. I thought the odds of a car company succeeding were extremely low.
Sam Altman:
What do you think the odds of the Mars colony are at this point today?
Elon Musk:
Well, oddly enough, I actually think they're pretty good.
Sam Altman:
So like when can I go?
Elon Musk:
Okay, at this point, I am certain there is a way. I'm certain that success is one of the possible outcomes for establishing a self-sustaining Mars colony, in fact growing Mars colony. I'm certain that is possible.
Whereas until maybe a few years ago, I was not sure that success was even one of the possible outcomes.
Some meaningful number of people going to Mars, I think this is potentially something that can be accomplished in about 10 years. Maybe sooner, maybe nine years
I need to make sure that SpaceX doesn't die between now and then, and that I don't die, or if I do die, that someone takes over, who will continue that
Sam Altman:
You shouldn't go on the first launch.
Elon Musk:
Yeah, exactly. The first launch will be robotic anyway, so.
Sam Altman:
I want to go except for that internet latency.
Elon Musk:
Yeah, the internet latency would be pretty significant.
Mars is roughly 12 light minutes from the Sun, and Earth is eight light minutes. So closest approach Mars is four light minutes away, and furthest approach is 20.
A little more, because you can't sort of talk directly through the Sun.
Sam Altman:
Speaking of really important problems, AI, so you have been outspoken about AI.
Could you talk about what you think the positive future for AI looks like, and how we get there?
Elon Musk:
Okay, I mean, I do want to emphasize that, this is not really something that I advocate, or this is not prescriptive, this is simply hopefully predictive.
Because people will sometimes say, well, like this is something that I want to occur, instead of this is something I think that probably is the best of the available alternatives.
The best of the available alternatives that I can come up with, and maybe somebody else can come up with a better approach or better outcome is that, we achieve democratization of AI technology. Meaning that no one company or small set of individuals has control over advanced AI technology.
I think that's very dangerous. It could also get stolen by somebody bad, you know, like some evil dictator or country could send their intelligence agency to go steal it and gain control.
It just becomes a very unstable situation, I think if you've got any incredibly powerful AI. You just don't know who's going to control that.
so it's not as I think that the risk is that the AI would develop a will of its own right off the bad, I think the concern is that someone may use it in a way that is bad. And even if they weren't going to use it in a way that's bad, that somebody could take it from them and use it in a way that's bad.
That I think is quite a big danger
So I think we must have democratization of AI technology, and make it widely available. And that's you know, the reason that obviously you mean, the rest of the team, you know created OpenAI, was to help spread out AI technology, so it doesn't get concentrated in the hands of a few.
But then, of course that needs to be combined with solving the high bandwidth interface to the cortex.
Sam Altman:
Humans are so slow.
Elon Musk:
Humans are so slow. Yes, exactly.
But you know, we already have a situation in our brain, where we've got the cortex and limbic system. And the limbic system is kind of the I mean, that's the primitive brain. It's kind of like your instincts and whatnot. And then the cortex is the thinking of a part of the brain.
Those two seem to work together quite well. Occasionally your cortex and limbic system may disagree, but they generally works pretty well.
And I've not found someone who wishes to either get rid of their cortex or get rid of their limbic system.
Sam Altman:
Very true.
Elon Musk:
Yeah, that's unusual.
So I think if we can effectively merge with AI by improving the neuralink between your cortex and the digital extension of yourself, which like I said, already exists, just has a bandwidth issue. and then effectively, you become an AI human symbiote.
And if that then is widespread with anyone who wants it can have it, then we solve the control problem as well. We don't have to worry about some sort of evil dictator AI, because kind of we are the AI collectively.
That seems like the best outcome I can think of
Sam Altman:
So you've seen other companies in the early days that start small and get really successful. Hope I don't forget asking this on camera, but how do you think OpenAI is going as a six month old company?
Elon Musk:
I think it's going pretty well. I think we've got a really talented group at OpenAI. And yeah, really really talented team and they're working hard.
OpenAI is structured as a 501c3 non-profit, but you know, many non-profits do not have a sense of urgency. It's fine. They don't have to have a sense of urgency. But OpenAI does, as I think people really believe in the mission. I think it's important. And it's about minimizing the risk of existential harm in the future.
And so I think it's going well. I'm pretty impressed with what people are doing and the talent level. And obviously we're always looking for great people to join who believe in the mission.
Sam Altman:
Close to 40 people nuts.
All right. Just a few more questions before we we wrap up. How do you spend your days now? Like what do you allocate most of your time to?
Elon Musk:
My time is mostly split well... it's between SpaceX and Tesla. And of course, I try to spend... it's a part of every week at OpenAI. So I spend basically half a day at OpenAI most weeks.
And then, I have some OpenAI stuff that happens during the week. But other than that, it's really SpaceX and Tesla.
Sam Altman:
And what do you do when you're at SpaceX or Tesla? Like what does your time look like there?
Elon Musk:
Yeah, so that's a good question.
I think a lot of people think I must spend a lot of time with media or on businessy things, but actually almost all my time, like 80 percent of it is spent on engineering and design, engineering and design.
So it's developing next generation product, that's 80 percent of it.
Sam Altman:
You probably don't remember this a very long time ago, many many years, you took me on a tour of SpaceX. And the most impressive thing was that you knew every detail of the rocket and every piece of engineering that went into it.
I don't think many people get that about you.
Elon Musk:
Yeah, I think a lot of people think I'm kind of a business person or something. It's just fine. Like business is fine.
But like in SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell is Chief Operating Officer. She kind of manages legal, finance, sales, and kind of general business activity.
And then my time is almost entirely with the engineering team, working on improving the Falcon 9 and the Dragon spacecraft, and developing the Mars colonial architecture.
And then at Tesla, it's working on the Model 3. And you know, some time in the design studio, typically half a day a week, dealing with this aesthetics and look and feel things.
And then most of the week is just going through engineering of the car itself, as well as engineering of the factory. Because the biggest effect I've had this year is that, what really matters is the machine that builds the machine, the factory. And that is at least two orders of magnitude harder than the vehicle itself.
Sam Altman:
It's amazing to watch the robots go here, and these cars just happen.
Elon Musk:
Yeah. This actually has a relatively low level of automation, compared to what the gigafactory will have and what Model 3 will have.
Sam Altman:
What's the speed on the line of these cars?
Elon Musk:
Actually, the average speed of the line is incredibly slow.
It's probably about, including both X and S, it's maybe you know, five centimeters per second. This is very slow
Sam Altman:
And what would you like to get to?
Elon Musk:
I'm confident we can get to at least one meter per second. So a 20-fold increase.
Sam Altman:
That would be very fast.
Elon Musk:
Yeah, at least.
I mean I think one meter per second just put that in perspective is a slow walk, or like a medium speed walk. A fast walk would be one and a half meters per second. And then, the fastest humans can run over 10 meters per second.
So if we're only doing 0.05 meters per second, that's very slow of current speed. And at one meter per second, you can still walk faster than the production line.