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Do you think the world is going to be a better place next year? In the next decade? Can we end hunger, achieve gender equality, halt climate change, all in the next 15 years?
你们觉得明年这个世界会变的更好吗？未来十年呢？我们能不能解决饥饿问题，实现性别平等，停止气候变化，让所有这些都在未来15年内实现？
Well, according to the governments of the world, yes we can. In the last few days, the leaders of the world, meeting at the UN in New York, agreed a new set of Global Goals for the development of the world to 2030. And here they are: these goals are the product of a massive consultation exercise. The Global Goals are who we, humanity, want to be.
那么，根据世界各国政府所说，我们是可以做到的。在过去的几天里，全世界的领导人在位于纽约的联合国总部进行了会面，对于到2030年世界发展的一系列新的全球目标达成了共识。就是这些：这些目标是大量咨询磋商的产物。这些全球目标是我们这些人类想要实现的。
Now that's the plan, but can we get there? Can this vision for a better world really be achieved? Well, I'm here today because we've run the numbers, and the answer, shockingly, is that maybe we actually can. But not with business as usual.
这就是这个计划，但是我们能实现吗？这个更好的世界的愿景可以实现吗？我今天站在这里，是因为我们研究了一下，研究出的答案，非常让人震惊，那就是也许我们真的能做到。但不是用一如往常的方式来实现了
Now, the idea that the world is going to get a better place may seem a little fanciful. Watch the news every day and the world seems to be going backwards, not forwards. And let's be frank: it's pretty easy to be skeptical about grand announcements coming out of the UN.
现在，这个世界正在变得更好的想法可能看起来还有些不切实际。我们每天看新闻时觉得这个世界是在退步，而不是进步。那我们坦白地说：其实这个从联合国发出的宏伟的公告很容易让人怀疑。
But please, I invite you to suspend your disbelief for just a moment. Because back in 2001, the UN agreed another set of goals, the Millennium Development Goals. And the flagship target there was to halve the proportion of people living in poverty by 2015. The target was to take from a baseline of 1990, when 36 percent of the world's population lived in poverty, to get to 18 percent poverty this year.
但是我建议你先搁置你的怀疑一小会儿。因为回到2001年，那时联合国也同意了另一系列的目标，就是千年发展目标。当时的核心目标就是到2015年时使贫穷人口的比例减少一半。那个目标是当时以1990年为基础设立的，当时有36%的世界人口的生活很贫穷，而目标是到今年这个指标要降到18%。
Did we hit this target? Well, no, we didn't. We exceeded it. This year, global poverty is going to fall to 12 percent. Now, that's still not good enough, and the world does still have plenty of problems. But the pessimists and doomsayers who say that the world can't get better are simply wrong.
我们达到这个目标了吗？我们没有。我们超越了它。今年，全球贫困人口比例将要降到12%。但是这仍不够好，因为这个世界还是存在很多的问题。但是那些说这个世界不能变得更好的悲观主义者和末日预言者们是真的错了。
So how did we achieve this success? Well, a lot of it was because of economic growth. Some of the biggest reductions in poverty were in countries such as China and India, which have seen rapid economic growth in recent years. So can we pull off the same trick again? Can economic growth get us to the Global Goals? Well, to answer that question, we need to benchmark where the world is today against the Global Goals and figure out how far we have to travel.
那么我们是如何取得这些成功的呢？其实，这很大程度上要归功于经济的增长。贫穷人口大量减少的一些地方是在像中国和印度这样的一些国家，而这些国家近几年的经济增长飞速。那现在我们能不能用同样的方式来达成目标呢？经济增长能让我们实现这些全球目标吗？那么，要回答这个问题的话，我们需要先弄明白如果要实现这些全球目标，我们当今的世界的状态是怎样的，并且要找出我们还有多少路要走。
But that ain't easy, because the Global Goals aren't just ambitious, they're also pretty complicated. Over 17 goals, there are then 169 targets and literally hundreds of indicators. Also, while some of the goals are pretty specific -- end hunger -- others are a lot vaguer -- promote peaceful and tolerant societies.
这并不容易，因为这些全球目标不仅仅很宏大，它们同样也很复杂。17个大目标下有169个小目标，并且不夸张地说，还有好几百个指标。同时，其中的一些目标是特别明确的——比如解决饥饿问题——其他的一些则是比较模糊的——比如促进建设和平宽容的社会。
So to help us with this bench marking, I'm going to use a tool called the Social Progress Index. What this does is measures all the stuff the Global Goals are trying to achieve, but sums it up into a single number that we can use as our benchmark and track progress over time.
所以为了我们更好地认识这项研究，我要引用一个名为“社会进步指数”的工具。这个工具的作用就是计算出全球目标要达到的所有指标，然后把他们组合起来变成一串数字以便我们研究，并且实时查出我们的进步。
The Social Progress Index basically asks three fundamental questions about a society. First of all, does everyone have the basic needs of survival: food, water, shelter, safety? Secondly, does everyone have the building blocks of a better life: education, information, health and a sustainable environment? And does everyone have the opportunity to improve their lives, through rights, freedom of choice, freedom from discrimination, and access to the world's most advanced knowledge?
“社会进步指数”主要提了关于社会的三个基本问题。第一：所有人都否都有基本生存下来的条件:食物、水、住所和安全？第二：是不是所有人都能为自己更好的生活添砖加瓦？包括教育、通讯、健康和可持续发展的环境等等。还有一点：是不是每个人都有改善他们生活条件的机会？在权利、选择的自由、不受任何歧视的自由、和可以接触到世界先进知识等方面的机会？
The Social Progress Index sums all this together using 52 indicators to create an aggregate score on a scale of 0 to 100. And what we find is that there's a wide diversity of performance in the world today. The highest performing country, Norway, scores 88. The lowest performing country, Central African Republic, scores 31. And we can add up all the countries together, weighting for the different population sizes, and that global score is 61. In concrete terms, that means that the average human being is living on a level of social progress about the same of Cuba or Kazakhstan today.
“社会进步指数”用52个指标把这些都集中到了一起，算出了一个百分制的总分。然后我们发现了今天的世界上的国家有各种各样的成绩。成绩最高的国家是挪威，88分。成绩最低的国家是中非共和国，31分。我们可以把所有的国家都放在一起，考量它们具有不同的人口规模的因素后，得到全球的平均值是61分。形象化地说，这意味着现在世界平均值的水平是我们人类正生活在像今天的古巴或者哈萨克斯坦这样的国家里。
That's where we are today: 61 out of 100. What do we have to get to to achieve the Global Goals？
我们的现实就是这样：百分制中的61分。那我们如果要实现全球目标需要什么呢？
Now, the Global Goals are certainly ambitious, but they're not about turning the world into Norway in just 15 years. So having looked at the numbers, my estimate is that a score of 75 would not only be a giant leap forward in human well-being, it would also count as hitting the Global Goals target. So there's our target, 75 out of 100. Can we get there?
其实，这些全球目标真的很宏大，但是这些目标不是说要在15年间把全世界都变成挪威那样。看看这些数字，我做出的预测是75分，达到这个分数不仅仅是一个关于人类福祉的巨大飞跃，也是一个可以实现全球目标的切实奋斗点。这就是我们的目标，百分制中的75分。我们能实现吗？
Well, the Social Progress Index can help us calculate this, because as you might have noticed, there are no economic indicators in there; there's no GDP or economic growth in the Social Progress Index model. And what that lets us do is understand the relationship between economic growth and social progress.
那么，“社会进步指数”可以帮助我们算出来，因为也许你已经注意到了，这里没有任何的经济指标；在“社会进步指数”模型中没有国内生产总值或经济增长的指标。这就要让我们弄明白经济增长和社会进步之间的关系。
Let me show you on this chart. So here on the vertical axis, I've put social progress, the stuff the Global Goals are trying to achieve. Higher is better. And then on the horizontal axis, is GDP per capita. Further to the right means richer. And in there, I'm now going to put all the countries of the world, each one represented by a dot, and on top of that I'm going to put the regression line that shows the average relationship.
我来给你们看下这张图。我把社会进步放在这张图的纵轴上，这就是全球目标要努力实现的东西。越高越好。在横轴上的是人均国内生产总值。越靠右边说明越富有。在这个区域中我要把世界上所有的国家放在里面，每个国家用一个点来代替，在这些点上面我会绘制一条回归曲线，来表现两个变量间的平均关系水平。
And what this tells us is that as we get richer, social progress does tend to improve. However, as we get richer, each extra dollar of GDP is buying us less and less social progress. And now we can use this information to start building our forecast. So here is the world in 2015.
这条曲线告诉了我们越富有，社会进步就越趋于增长。然而，当我们不断变富时，国内生产总值中每一额外美元可以换来的社会进步值却越来越少。现在我们就可以用这些信息来进行我们的预测了。2015年的世界，我们的社会进步得分是61分，人均国内生产总值是14000美元。
We have a social progress score of 61 and a GDP per capita of $14,000. And the place we're trying to get to, remember, is 75, that Global Goals target. So here we are today, $14,000 per capita GDP. How rich are we going to be in 2030? That's what we need to know next. Well, the best forecast we can find comes from the US Department of Agriculture, which forecasts 3.1 percent average global economic growth over the next 15 years, which means that in 2030, if they're right, per capita GDP will be about $23,000.
我们要努力到达的那个全球目标的分数，还记得吧，是75分。那我们现在的人均国内生产总值是14000美元。到2030年我们会变得多富呢？这就是我们接下来想要知道的了。我们可以找到的最好的预测是美国农业部做的，他们预测出了未来15年内3.1%的全球平均经济增长走势，这意味着如果它们是准确的话，到2030年，人均国内生产总值会达到大约23000美元。
So now the question is: if we get that much richer, how much social progress are we going to get? Well, we asked a team of economists at Deloitte who checked and crunched the numbers, and they came back and said, well, look: if the world's average wealth goes from $14,000 a year to $23,000 a year, social progress is going to increase from 61 to 62.4.
那现在的问题就是：如果我们变得那么富有了，我们的社会进步会得到多少分呢？我们咨询了德勤事务所里的经济学家，他们仔细地检查和研究了这些数字后，回来告诉了我们，来，看：如果世界平均财富从一年14000美元涨到一年23000美元，社会进步得分会从61分涨到62.4分。
Just 62.4. Just a tiny increase.
真的是62.4分。仅仅增加了一点儿。
Now this seems a bit strange. Economic growth seems to have really helped in the fight against poverty, but it doesn't seem to be having much impact on trying to get to the Global Goals. So what's going on? Well, I think there are two things. The first is that in a way, we're the victims of our own success. We've used up the easy wins from economic growth, and now we're moving on to harder problems. And also, we know that economic growth comes with costs as well as benefits. There are costs to the environment, costs from new health problems like obesity.
这看起来就有点奇怪了。经济的增长看起来对解决贫穷问题帮助很大。但它似乎并不能对我们达到全球目标有多大的帮助。那这是怎么回事呢？我觉得有两个原因。其一是，在某种程度上，我们是我们取得的成功的受害者。我们把从经济增长中获得的表面上的好处都用光了，现在我们就得面临更加困难的问题。其二，我们知道经济增长带来了好处，但同时也带来了代价。比如破坏环境的代价，还有比如产生了如肥胖等一些新健康问题的代价。
So that's the bad news. We're not going to get to the Global Goals just by getting richer.
这就是个坏消息了。所以如果想仅凭变得更富就到达全球目标是不可行的了。
So are the pessimists right?
那么那些悲观主义者就是正确的吗？
Well, maybe not. Because the Social Progress Index also has some very good news. Let me take you back to that regression line. So this is the average relationship between GDP and social progress, and this is what our last forecast was based on. But as you saw already, there is actually lots of noise around this trend line.
其实，应该不是。因为关于“社会进步指数”也有很多好消息。咱们再看一下那条回归曲线。这是国内生产总值和社会进步之间的平均关系水平曲线，这也是我们上一个预测的基础。但正如你们看到的，在这条曲线周围其实还有很多不在线上的点。
What that tells us, quite simply, is that GDP is not destiny. We have countries that are under performing on social progress, relative to their wealth. Russia has lots of natural resource wealth, but lots of social problems. China has boomed economically, but hasn't made much headway on human rights or environmental issues. India has a space program and millions of people without toilets.
这也就很明确地告诉了我们国内生产总值不是决定性的因素。世界上有一些比较富有，然而社会进步得分比较低的国家。俄罗斯有很多自然资源财富，但同时也有很多社会问题。中国的经济发展欣欣向荣，但在人权和环境问题上还没取得很大的进步。印度有太空计划，但也有上百万人无厕所可用。
Now, on the other hand, we have countries that are over performing on social progress relative to their GDP. Costa Rica has prioritized education, health and environmental sustainability, and as a result, it's achieving a very high level of social progress, despite only having a rather modest GDP. And Costa Rica's not alone. From poor countries like Rwanda to richer countries like New Zealand, we see that it's possible to get lots of social progress, even if your GDP is not so great.
另一方面，同样也存在国内生产总值不高，但是社会进步得分却比较高的国家。哥斯达黎加在教育、医疗和环境可持续性上处于领先水平。所以尽管它的国内生产总值不高，但它的社会进步水平却很高。哥斯达黎加也并非个案。从像卢旺达这样的穷国家到像新西兰这样的富国家，我们发现了即使国家的国内生产总值不高，也有可能取得很大的社会进步。
And that's really important, because it tells us two things. First of all, it tells us that we already in the world have the solutions to many of the problems that the Global Goals are trying to solve. It also tells us that we're not slaves to GDP. Our choices matter: if we prioritize the well-being of people, then we can make a lot more progress than our GDP might expect.
这一点很重要，因为它告诉了我们两件事。首先，它告诉了我们在当今世界上，我们已经有了一些可以应对全球目标要解决的问题的方法。而且，它还告诉了我们我们并不是国内生产总值的奴隶。我们如何选择是有决定性的：如果我们把人民的幸福放在首位，那么我们就可以创造出比国内生产总值能创造的更多的进步。
How much? Enough to get us to the Global Goals? Well, let's look at some numbers. What we know already: the world today is scoring 61 on social progress, and the place we want to get to is 75. If we rely on economic growth alone, we're going to get to 62.4. So let's assume now that we can get the countries that are currently under performing on social progress -- the Russia, China, Indians -- just up to the average. How much social progress does that get us?
我们要取得多少进步来到达全球目标呢？咱们来看看这些数字。我们已经知道：当今世界的平均社会进步值是61分。我们想要达到的目标是75分。如果我们仅仅依赖经济增长，我们到时候只能取得62.4分。那我们假设一下我们可以把现在社会进步得分较低的国家——比如俄罗斯、中国、印度等国提高到平均水平。那我们可以取得的进步会是多少分呢？
Well, that takes us to 65. It's a bit better, but still quite a long way to go. So let's get a little bit more optimistic and say, what if every country gets a little bit better at turning its wealth into well-being? Well then, we get to 67. And now let's be even bolder still. What if every country in the world chose to be like Costa Rica in prioritizing human well-being, using its wealth for the well-being of its citizens? Well then, we get to nearly 73, very close to the Global Goals.
大概是65分。这已经挺不错了，但其实还有很长的路要走。所以我们乐观点说，如果所有国家都把一点创造财富的精力转移到为人民增加福祉上会是怎样呢？那我们的平均得分将会提高到67分。让我们再更加地直白一点。如果世界上所有国家都像哥斯达黎加一样，把人民幸福放在首位，把国家的财富用到增加人民幸福将会怎样呢？这样的话，我们就能得到将近73分，非常接近全球目标了。
Can we achieve the Global Goals? Certainly not with business as usual. Even a flood tide of economic growth is not going to get us there, if it just raises the mega-yachts and the super-wealthy and leaves the rest behind. If we're going to achieve the Global Goals we have to do things differently. We have to prioritize social progress, and really scale solutions around the world. I believe the Global Goals are a historic opportunity, because the world's leaders have promised to deliver them. Let's not dismiss the goals or slide into pessimism; let's hold them to that promise. And we need to hold them to that promise by holding them accountable, tracking their progress all the way through the next 15 years.
那我们能到达全球目标吗？像通常那样通过经济的方式显然不行。如果仅仅增加大富翁和超级富豪的数量而置其他于不顾，那即使经济以洪水式的猛涨都不行。如果我们想到达那些全球目标我们就需要做一些不样的。我们要把社会进步放在首位，并且在世界范围内遴选方案。我相信这个全球目标是一个历史性的机遇，因为全球的领导人都已经承诺了要实现它。我们不要不管这些目标，也不要陷入悲观主义的泥潭。我们要坚持实现承诺。我们要负责任地坚持实现承诺，要在未来15年内始终追踪我们的进步。
And I want to finish by showing you a way to do that, called the People's Report Card. The People's Report Card brings together all this data into a simple framework that we'll all be familiar with from our school days, to hold them to account. It grades our performance on the Global Goals on a scale from F to A, where F is humanity at its worst, and A is humanity at its best. Our world today is scoring a C-. The Global Goals are all about getting to an A, and that's why we're going to be updating the People's Report Card annually, for the world and for all the countries of the world, so we can hold our leaders to account to achieve this target and fulfill this promise. Because getting to the Global Goals will only happen if we do things differently, if our leaders do things differently, and for that to happen, that needs us to demand it.
我想给你们展示一种可行的方法来结束这个演讲，这个方法叫做“人民成绩单”。“人民成绩单”把所有的数据转变为一种我们在学生时代都很熟悉的方式，来作出一个解释。成绩单把我们实现全球目标过程中的得分作出从F到A的分级评估。F代表最不人性，A代表最人性。我们当今的世界得分是C-。实现全球目标要求我们得到A，这就是我们每年都要更新“人民成绩单”的原因，这都是为了这个世界，为了世界上的所有国家，我们的领导人要承担起责任来实现这个目标，兑现他们的承诺。因为只有我们做一些改变，我们的领导人做一些改变，我们才能达到全球目标，要实现目标就需要各位切实地去做。
So let's reject business as usual. Let's demand a different path. Let's choose the world that we want.
那就让我们一起摒弃掉传统的观念。让我们一起走一条不同的路。让我们选择我们想要的世界。
Thank you.
谢谢。
Bruno Giussani: Thank you, Michael. Michael, just one question: the Millennium Development Goals established 15 years ago, they were kind of applying to every country but it turned out to be really a scorecard for emerging countries. Now the new Global Goals are explicitly universal. They ask for every country to show action and to show progress. How can I, as a private citizen, use the report card to create pressure for action?
Bruno Giussani：谢谢你，Michael。Michael，我就问一个问题：千年发展目标是15年前确立的，当时基本上每个国家都选择要实现这个目标，然而它却真的变成了新兴国家的记分牌。现在新的全球目标很明确地被各国通用。它要求所有国家要行动起来，要有所进步。那么作为一个普通公民，我怎么才能用这个成绩单来监督国家的行动呢？
Michael Green: This is a really important point; it's a big shift in priorities -- it's no longer about poor countries and just poverty. It's about every country. And every country is going to have challenges in getting to the Global Goals. Even, I'm sorry to say, Bruno, Switzerland has got to work to do. And so that's why we're going to produce these report cards in 2016 for every country in the world. Then we can really see, how are we doing? And it's not going to be rich countries scoring straight A's. And that, then, I think, is to provide a point of focus for people to start demanding action and start demanding progress.
Michael Green：你提的这点很重要；这次在首要性方面会有很大改变。这不再是仅关乎于贫穷国家和贫穷问题了。这关乎于所有国家。而且每个国家要到达全球目标都会面临挑战。Bruno，甚至很遗憾地说，瑞士也有工作要做。这就是为什么我们要在2016年为全世界所有国家都做一个成绩单。这样我们就能真正地看到我们做得怎么样了。而且也不是说能拿到A的就只是富国家。于是我认为，我们要把关注点放在人们要开始切实地行动和开始在进步上努力。
BG: Thank you very much.
BrunoGiussani：非常感谢。
来源：TED演讲
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