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These are the places most at risk from record-breaking heat waves as the planet warms
Dangerous, record-breaking heat waves are set to increase as the climate crisis intensifies, and they will be particularly devastating in countries and regions that are least prepared for them, according to a new study.
Scientists analyzed temperature data sets spanning more than 60 years, as well as climate models, to calculate the likelihood of unprecedented heat extremes occurring – and where these might happen.
They identified Afghanistan, Papua New Guinea and Central America – including Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua – as “hot spots” for high-risk heat waves.
These regions are particularly vulnerable due to their fast-growing populations and limited access to healthcare and energy supplies, which undermine their resilience to extreme temperatures, according to the report, published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications.
“There’s evidence there that those regions may well be in for a big heat wave and they wouldn’t be prepared for it,” said Dann Mitchell, a professor in atmospheric sciences at the University of Bristol in the UK and a study co-author.
The threat facing Afghanistan is particularly stark, Mitchell told CNN. Not only is there high potential for record-breaking extreme heat, but the impacts will be intensified by the huge difficulties the country already faces, he said.
Afghanistan is struggling with dire social and economic problems. It also has a growing population which is increasingly exposed to the problems of limited resources, according to the report.
“When a really extreme heat wave does finally come along, then there are instantly going to be a lot of problems,” Mitchell said.
Heat waves have a wide-ranging negative impact. They reduce air quality, worsen drought, increase the risk of wildfires and can lead infrastructure to buckle.
They also take a heavy toll on human health, and extreme heat is one of the deadliest natural disasters. Heat stroke or heat exhaustion can trigger a wide range of dangerous symptoms, including headaches, dizziness, nausea and loss of consciousness, among others.
Heat stroke is the most serious heat-related illness, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, causing body temperature to skyrocket in a matter of minutes, and can lead to permanent disability or death.
Several regions have already seen unprecedented temperatures this year. In March, parts of Argentina grappled with temperatures up to 10 degrees Celsius, or 18 degrees Fahrenheit, above normal, while high temperature records were smashed across large parts of Asia in April.
“Heat waves and other extreme weather events will only become more intense as the world continues to burn fossil fuels,” said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London, who was not involved with the study.
Nowhere is safe, noted the report, which found that “statistically implausible” heat waves – those that fell well outside the historical norm – occurred between 1959 and 2021 in around 30% of the regions assessed. These include the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave, where high temperature records were not just broken but completely smashed, killing hundreds of people.
In Lytton, British Columbia, temperatures peaked at just under 50 degrees Celsius (121 degrees Fahrenheit) in June 2021, breaking the previous record by almost 5 degrees. The village was almost completely destroyed by a wildfire just days later.
Scientists determined that the event would have been almost impossible without climate change.
Parts of China, including Beijing, and European countries, such as Germany and Belgium, also face a high risk, according to the report.
The millions of people who live in these densely populated regions could be badly affected by heat waves, even if these countries are more likely to have resources to mitigate some of the worst impacts.
The report calls on governments around the world to prepare for heat events that go far beyond current record temperatures, such as setting up cooling centers and reducing hours for those working outside.
Many policies exist that governments can implement to save lives, Otto said, including “preparing heat wave management plans, ensuring and testing they are implemented, informing the public about imminent heat waves, and protecting people who are vulnerable to the impacts of heat waves.”
Unprecedented heat events are becoming more likely as the world continues to burn fossil fuels, said Lucas Vargas Zeppetello, a research fellow at Harvard University, whose 2022 research found that dangerous levels of heat are set to at least triple across the world by the end of the century.
“By definition, we don’t know what could happen if large populations are exposed to unprecedented heat and humidity stress,” Vargas Zeppetello told CNN, “but heat waves in the past few decades have already been extremely deadly and there is serious cause for concern in the future.”
注释：
intensify: v
表示"强化；加剧"，means " become more intense or intensive"，如：We need to intensify our effort to fight corruption and to prevent and eliminate its root causes.加大治本力度，从源头上预防和治理腐败。
devastating: adj
表示" 毁灭性的；破坏性的"，means " completely destructive"，如：A smouldering cigarette can kindle a devastating bushfire. 闷燃着的香烟会引起毁灭性的林区大火。
Afghanistan: n
表示" 阿富汗[亚洲]"，means "a mountainous landlocked country in central Asia bordered by Iran to the west and Russia to the north and Pakistan to the east and south;"，如：Afghanistan has not regained full stability. 阿富汗局势尚未完全稳定。
undermine: v
表示" 逐渐削弱；暗中损害"，means "weaken or destroy gradually"，如：They will do anything to undermine their adversary's reputation.他们会不择手段地去损害对手的名誉。
resilience: n
表示" 适应力；弹性"，means "an occurrence of rebounding or springing back"，如：She has shown great resilience to stress. 她对压力表现出了极大的适应能力。
dire: adj
表示" 可怕的；悲惨的"，means "causing fear or dread or terror"，如：You'll be in dire trouble if you don't watch out. 你若不小心，就会有可怕的麻烦。
buckle: v
表示"用搭扣扣紧; 弯曲；屈服"，means "fasten with a buckle; become bent or wavy through heat,pressure,etc;"，如：He buckled up his belt tightly.他把裤带扣得紧紧的。The shock buckled the wheel of my bicycle.这一碰把我自行车的轮子碰歪了He refused to buckle under pressure.他决不屈服于压力。
toll: n
表示"伤亡人数；通行费,代价"，means "suffering,deaths or damage; a fee charged for passage"，如：The government tried to keep the death toll at a lower level.政府力图将死亡人数控制在较低标准。
grapple: v
表示" 抓住；扭打；"，means "to grip or seize, as in a wrestling match"，如：She grappled with her assailant but her husband got away. 她与袭击者扭打，而她丈夫却逃走了。
Smash：v
表示"粉碎；猛撞"，means "break into pieces with violence and noise; deal a heavy blow to; defeat"，如：The bottle slipped and smashed to pieces on the floor. 瓶子滑在地上,摔成碎片。We shall thoroughly smash the scheme of the enemy. 我们要彻底粉碎敌人的阴谋。
implausible: adj
表示"似乎不合情理的；不像真实的"，means "highly imaginative but unlikely"，如：His excuses were totally implausible.他的借口完全不可相信。
mitigate: v
表示" 减轻；缓和"，means "make less severe or harsh"，如：The judge said that nothing could mitigate the cruelty with which the stepmother had treated the girl.法官说没有任何理由可以把那个继母残忍虐待女孩的罪责减轻。
imminent: adj
表示" 逼近的；即将发生的"，means "probably about to happen soon"，如：He was faced with imminent death. 他面临逼近的死亡。
中文简要说明：
随着全球暖化脚步加速，许多地方都出现破纪录高温。一项最新气候研究指出，有几个国家的热浪效应尤其严重，包括阿富汗、巴布亚新几内亚，以及中美洲的危地马拉、洪都拉斯和尼加拉瓜，这些国家的人口快速成长，医疗和能源供给却未能实时跟上，成为高温危机下最脆弱的一群。这项研究已发表在《自然-通讯》（Nature Communications）期刊。
美国有线新闻网（CNN）报导，科学家透过分析1959至2021年间的温度数据和气候模型，来预测可能出现极端高温的地区和机率。得到的结果显示，超过30%的地区都出现了罕见热浪。其中一个著名的例子，发生在2021年6月，加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省利顿村（Lytton）出现将近将近摄氏50度高温，接连爆发的野火几乎烧毁整座村庄。
今年也不例外。3月时，阿根廷部分地区出现了高出均温摄氏10度的异常气候；东南亚的寮国和泰国则是迎来史上最热的4月天，分别录得摄氏42.7度和45度的高温。
报告也指出，中国大陆部分地区，包括北京，以及欧洲国家如德国、比利时，也都面临了热浪风险。即便这些地方的政府具备较充足的资源来应对，仍然有数百万民众将饱受高温所苦，生命及财产深陷威胁。
未参与这项研究的哈佛大学气候研究员泽佩特洛（Lucas Vargas Zeppetello）表示，由于全球燃烧化石燃料的比例不减反增，到了本世纪末，全世界各地的危险高温情况将增加3到10倍，数十亿人口将暴露在极端高温下，「未来的情况令人担忧」。
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