Today, tomorrow, learn English naturally. 天天自然学英语
China, Indonesia, Vietnam lead global growth for coming decade in new Growth Lab projections
China, India, Indonesia, Uganda, and Vietnam are projected to be among the fastest-growing economies for the coming decade, according to researchers at the Growth Lab at Harvard University. The new growth projections presented in the Atlas of Economic Complexity include the first detailed look at 2021 trade data, which reveal continued disruptions from the uneven economic recovery from the global pandemic. China is expected to be the fastest-growing economy per capita, although its growth rate is smaller than gains seen over the past decade.
Growth over the coming decade is projected to take off in three growth poles, East Asia, Eastern Europe and East Africa. Several Asian economies already hold the necessary economic complexity to drive the fastest growth over the coming decade to 2031. They are led by China, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and India. In East Africa, several economies are expected to experience rapid growth, though driven more by population growth than gains in economic complexity, which include Uganda, Tanzania and Mozambique. Eastern Europe holds strong growth potential for its continued advances in economic complexity, with Georgia, Lithuania, Belarus, Armenia, Latvia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Romania and Albania all ranking in the projected top 15 economies on a per capita basis. Outside these growth poles, the projections also show potential for Egypt to achieve more rapid growth. Other developing regions face more challenging growth prospects by making fewer gains in their economic complexity, including Latin America and the Caribbean and West Africa.
“Countries that have diversified their production into more complex sectors, like Vietnam and China, are those that will lead global growth in the coming decade,” said Ricardo Hausmann, professor at the Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), director of the Growth Lab and the leading researcher of the Atlas of Economic Complexity. “China and Vietnam already realized many of the income gains from their increased complexity. Nevertheless, they remain more complex than expected for their income level so will remain global growth poles.”
The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) captures the diversity and sophistication of the productive capabilities embedded in the exports of each country. The researchers place the diversity of productive knowledge — or knowhow — that a society has at the heart of the economic development process. Economic growth requires the accumulation of new knowhow and its use to diversify production into more sophisticated — aka complex — activities. ECI is able to closely explain differences in country incomes and predict future growth.
The Growth Lab researchers also released new 2021 ECI rankings, which show remarkable stability despite uneven economic recovery and lingering pandemic effects in 2021. The ECI ranking finds the most complex countries in the world are, in order, Japan, Switzerland, South Korea, Germany and Singapore.
注释：
capita: n
表示"人数；（牲畜）头数"，如：Many countries precede ours in per capita income.许多国家的人均收入超过我国。
pole: n
表示" 杆；柱；"，means " long thin rounded piece of wood or metal, used especially as a support for sth or for pushing boats, etc. along"，如：He had put up a basket on a pole in the back yard.他在后院一根柱子上安一个球篮。
中文简要说明：
哈佛大学成长实验室（Growth Lab）的研究预测显示，未来10年间，中国、印度、印度尼西亚、乌干达和越南等国会是成长最快的经济体。
历经全球新冠大流行疫情的冲击后，全球经济复苏并不均衡。据《哈佛校报》（The Harvard Gazette）报导，尽管中国成长率低于过去10年的增幅，但预料将成为人均成长最快的经济体。未来10年的成长，可望从东亚、东欧和东非这3个「成长极」（growth poles）起飞。而到2031年，几个亚洲经济体已具备必要的经济复杂性，来驱动最快速的成长。
其中带头的有中国、柬埔寨、越南、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和印度。身为成长实验室主任的哈佛经济学家豪斯曼（Ricardo Hausmann）说，如越南和中国等，已把制造多元化、从事更复杂行业的国家，将会在未来10年领导全球成长。他并指出，中、越已从提高多元化的复杂性，实现了许多收益。然而，它们的收入水平仍比预期更复杂，因此依然会是全球「成长极」。
另外在东非，如乌干达、坦桑尼亚和莫桑比克等经济体可望体验快速的成长，不过人口成长的驱动力大于经济复杂性的成长。
至于东欧，则是由于经济复杂性持续成长，而有强劲的成长潜力，就人均基础来说，排名前15的经济体预计有乔治亚、立陶宛、白俄罗斯、亚美尼亚、拉脱维亚、波斯尼亚与赫塞哥维纳、罗马尼亚和阿尔巴尼亚等。
留言微信公众号《自然学英语LearnNaturally》，可咨询更多！