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Global economy set for its worst half decade of growth in 30 years, World Bank says
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The global economy is on course to record its worst half decade of growth in 30 years, according to the World Bank.
Global growth is forecast to slow for the third year in a row in 2024, dipping to 2.4% from 2.6% in 2023, the bank said in its latest “Global Economic Prospects” report.
“Without a major course correction, the 2020s will go down as a decade of wasted opportunity,” Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s chief economist and senior vice president, said.
The global economy is on course to record its worst half decade of growth in 30 years, according to the World Bank.
Global growth is forecast to slow for the third year in a row in 2024, dipping to 2.4% from 2.6% in 2023, the organization said in its latest “Global Economic Prospects” report released Tuesday.
Growth is then expected to rise marginally to 2.7% in 2025, though acceleration over the five-year period will remain almost three-quarters of a percentage point below the average rate of the 2010s.
And despite the global economy proving resilient in the face of recessionary risks in 2023, increased geopolitical tensions will present fresh near-term challenges, the organization said, leaving most economies set to grow more slowly in 2024 and 2025 than they did in the previous decade.
“You have a war in Eastern Europe, the Russian invasion of Ukraine. You have a serious conflict in the Middle East. Escalation of these conflicts could have significant implications for energy prices that could have impacts on inflation as well as on economic growth,” Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist and director of the Prospects Group, told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro.
The bank warned that without a “major course correction,” the 2020s will go down as “a decade of wasted opportunity.”
Developing economies to be hit hardest
On a regional basis, growth this year is set to weaken most in North America, Europe and Central Asia, and Asia-Pacific — mainly on account of slower expansion in China. A slight improvement is forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean, coming off a low base, while more marked pickups are expected in the Middle East and Africa.
Still, developing economies are set to be the hardest hit on a medium-term basis as sluggish global trade and tight financial conditions weigh heavily on growth.
“Near-term growth will remain weak, leaving many developing countries — especially the poorest — stuck in a trap: with paralyzing levels of debt and tenuous access to food for nearly one out of every three people,” Gill said.
Developing economies are now expected to grow by just 3.9% in 2024, more than 1 percentage point below the average of the previous decade. By the end of the year, people in about 1 out of every 4 developing countries and about 40% of low-income countries will still be poorer than they were on the eve of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019, the organization said.
The bank said the data showed that the world was failing in its goal of making the 2020s a “transformative decade” in tackling extreme poverty, major communicable diseases and climate change. However, it added that there was an opportunity to turn the tide if governments act quickly to increase investment and strengthen fiscal policy frameworks.
“Investment booms have the potential to transform developing economies and help them speed up the energy transition and achieve a wide variety of development objectives,” Kose said in the report, released ahead of the World Economic Forum next week — where international business and political leaders gather at the annual meeting to discuss global politics, economics and social issues.
“To spark such booms, developing economies need to implement comprehensive policy packages to improve fiscal and monetary frameworks, expand cross-border trade and financial flows, improve the investment climate, and strengthen the quality of institutions,” he said.
“That is hard work, but many developing economies have been able to do it before. Doing it again will help mitigate the projected slowdown in potential growth in the rest of this decade.”
注释：
tenuous: adj
表示"脆弱的；稀薄的"，means "having thin consistency"，如：Our existence is far more tenuous than we might think. 但我们的生命远比想像的要脆弱。The air ten miles above the earth is very tenuous. 地面往上十英里处的气体是非常稀薄的。
mitigate: v
表示" 减轻；缓和"，means "make less severe or harsh"，如：Her words mitigated my suffering. 她的话减轻了我的痛苦。The government is trying to mitigate the effects of inflation. 政府正试图缓和通货膨胀的影响。
中文简要说明：
综合亚洲新闻台（CNA）、路透社、CNBC报导，联合国国际劳工组织（ILO）表示，受到地缘政治紧张局势和持续通膨影响，各国央行纷纷采取激进措施，疫后经济复苏的脚步也跟着放慢。
2022年全球失业率为5.3%，去年稍有改善，降至5.1%。但2024年预计将新增200万名失业劳工，使全球失业率上升至5.2%。
除了就业市场的前景不明朗，国际劳工组织也指出，全球多数富裕国家的可支配所得都有所减少，通膨带来的生活水平下降「短时间内不可能恢复」。
世银发布的最新「全球经济展望」（GEPs）报告也显示，2024年预期全球经济成长为2.4%，相较于2023年的2.6%、2022年的3%以及2021年的6.2%，是连续第3年出现倒退。
世银副首席经济学家柯锡（Ayhan Kose）表示，2020至2024年这段期间的经济成长，甚至会比2008至2009年金融海啸危机、1990年代末期亚洲金融风暴、以及2000年代初衰退时期更疲软。
柯锡进一步解释：「东欧有俄乌战争，中东也有严重冲突，这些冲突升温会对能源价格造成重大影响，从而对经济成长与通膨带来冲击。」
若从区域来看，预期今年北美、欧洲、中亚与亚太地区的衰退最为显著，主要由于中国经济成长放缓所致。拉美和加勒比海地区将有小幅改善，但基数较低，而中东和非洲则会出现显著回升。
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