认清你的认知边界-巴菲特如何避免问题
Understanding your circle of competence helps you avoid problems, identify opportunities for improvement, and learn from others.
理解你的认知范围帮忙你避免无谓的问题，识别提升的机会和从别人那里学习。
The concept of the Circle of Competence has been used over the years by Warren Buffett as a way to focus investors on only operating in areas they knew best. The bones of the concept appear in his 1996 Shareholder Letter:
What an investor needs is the ability to correctly evaluate selected businesses. Note that word “selected”: You don’t have to be an expert on every company, or even many. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.
投资者需要的是正确评估选定业务的能力。注意“被选中”这个词：你不必是每一家公司，甚至很多公司的专家。你只需要能够评估你能力范围内的公司。这个圆的大小不是很重要；然而，了解它的边界是至关重要的。
Circle Of Competence
Circle of Competence is simple: Each of us, through experience or study, has built up useful knowledge on certain areas of the world. Some areas are understood by most of us, while some areas require a lot more specialty to evaluate.
能力圈很简单：我们每个人都通过经验或学习，在世界的某些领域积累了有用的知识。有些领域我们大多数人都理解，而有些领域需要更多的专业知识来评估。
能力圈很简单：我们每个人都通过经验或学习，在世界的某些领域积累了有用的知识。有些领域我们大多数人都理解，而有些领域需要更多的专业知识来评估。
For example, most of us have a basic understanding of the economics of a restaurant: You rent or buy space, spend money to outfit the place and then hire employees to seat, serve, cook, and clean. (And, if you don’t want to do it yourself, manage.)
例如，我们中的大多数人对餐馆的经济状况有一个基本的了解：你租或买地方，花钱给地方装潢，然后雇员工来坐席、上菜、做饭和打扫卫生(而且，如果你不想自己动手，那就设法去做。）
例如，我们中的大多数人对餐馆的经济状况有一个基本的了解：你租或买地方，花钱给地方装潢，然后雇员工来坐席、上菜、做饭和打扫卫生(而且，如果你不想自己动手，那就设法去做。）
From there, it’s a matter of generating enough traffic and setting the appropriate prices to generate a profit on the food and drinks you serve—after all of your operating expenses have been paid. Though the cuisine, atmosphere, and price points will vary by restaurant, they all have to follow the same economic formula.
从这里开始，你需要创造足够的流量，并设定适当的价格，在你所有的运营费用都付清之后，为你提供的食物和饮料创造利润。尽管餐厅的菜肴、氛围和价格各不相同，但它们都必须遵循相同的经济公式。
从这里开始，你需要创造足够的流量，并设定适当的价格，在你所有的运营费用都付清之后，为你提供的食物和饮料创造利润。尽管餐厅的菜肴、氛围和价格各不相同，但它们都必须遵循相同的经济公式。
That basic knowledge, along with some understanding of accounting and a little bit of study, would enable one to evaluate and invest in any number of restaurants and restaurant chains, public or private. It’s not all that complicated.
这些基本知识，加上对会计的一些了解和一点学习，将使人们能够评估和投资于任何数量的餐馆和连锁餐馆，无论是公共的还是私人的。没那么复杂。
这些基本知识，加上对会计的一些了解和一点学习，将使人们能够评估和投资于任何数量的餐馆和连锁餐馆，无论是公共的还是私人的。没那么复杂。
However, can most of us say we understand the workings of a microchip company or a biotech drug company at the same level? Perhaps not.
“I’m no genius. I’m smart in spots—but I stay around those spots.”
— Tom Watson Sr., Founder of IBM
But as Buffett so eloquently put it, we do not necessarily need to understand these more esoteric areas to invest capital. Far more important is to honestly define what we do know and stick to those areas. Our circle of competence can be widened, but only slowly and over time. Mistakes are most often made when straying from this discipline.
Circle of Competence applies outside of investing.
Buffett describes the circle of competence of one of his business managers, a Russian immigrant with poor English who built the largest furniture store in Nebraska:
I couldn’t have given her $200 million worth of Berkshire Hathaway stock when I bought the business because she doesn’t understand stock. She understands cash. She understands furniture. She understands real estate. She doesn’t understand stocks, so she doesn’t have anything to do with them. If you deal with Mrs. B in what I would call her circle of competence… She is going to buy 5,000 end tables this afternoon (if the price is right). She is going to buy 20 different carpets in odd lots, and everything else like that [snaps fingers] because she understands carpet. She wouldn’t buy 100 shares of General Motors if it was at 50 cents a share.
It did not hurt Mrs. B to have such a narrow area of competence. In fact, one could argue the opposite. Her rigid devotion to that area allowed her to focus. Only with that focus could she have overcome her handicaps to achieve such extreme success.
In fact, Charlie Munger takes this concept outside of business altogether and into the realm of life in general. The essential question he sought to answer: Where should we devote our limited time in life, to achieve the most success? Charlie’s simple prescription:
You have to figure out what your own aptitudes are. If you play games where other people have the aptitudes and you don’t, you’re going to lose. And that’s as close to certain as any prediction that you can make. You have to figure out where you’ve got an edge. And you’ve got to play within your own circle of competence.
If you want to be the best tennis player in the world, you may start out trying and soon find out that it’s hopeless—that other people blow right by you. However, if you want to become the best plumbing contractor in Bemidji, that is probably doable by two-thirds of you. It takes a will. It takes the intelligence. But after a while, you’d gradually know all about the plumbing business in Bemidji and master the art. That is an attainable objective, given enough discipline. And people who could never win a chess tournament or stand in center court in a respectable tennis tournament can rise quite high in life by slowly developing a circle of competence—which results partly from what they were born with and partly from what they slowly develop through work.
So, the simple takeaway here is clear. If you want to improve your odds of success in life and business, then define the perimeter of your circle of competence, and operate inside. Over time, work to expand that circle but never fool yourself about where it stands today, and never be afraid to say “I don’t know.”
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