文本选自：The Economist（经济学人）
作者：Unknown
原文标题：Could America’s economy escape recession?
原文发布时间：24 Jul. 2023
Could America's economy escape recession?
As covid-19 spread throughout the world three years ago, many pored over the history of a previous pandemic, the Spanish flu of 1918-19, for clues about how the disaster would unfold. Now that the plague has abated, history may also provide a few lessons for the aftermath. As the first world war and the Spanish flu receded, interest rates were low and government spending high. Inflation surged. In order to bring prices back under control, America's central bankers cranked rates up, triggering a severe recession. The Federal Reserve described its actions in 1921 as "painful but…unavoidable" following "an unprecedented orgy of extravagance".
These days Fed officials tend to avoid the word orgy, but they are wrestling with similar circumstances. They have been raising rates at the fastest pace since the early 1980s. Hawkish economists argue that, to quell inflation, the Fed will have to raise them yet higher, even though that would certainly raise unemployment and probably induce a recession. Doves counter that the Fed has already gone too far and that further economic pain is unnecessary. A third possibility, that the Fed is getting things just right, and that the economy will slow and inflation dissipate without a recession (a "soft landing" in the jargon), was until recently seen as nigh on impossible.
The odds are still stacked against it. Since March 2022 the Fed has lifted short-term interest rates from 0% to 5%. Such rapid jumps tend to go hand-in-hand with recessions. As higher rates raise the cost of borrowing, they drag down both spending by consumers and investment by companies.
美国经济能否避免衰退?
精听党背景导读
2023年，海外经济的“滞胀”压力将逐渐从“胀”转向“滞”。金融市场持续交易预期修复和政策转向。这显然低估了货币政策的累计效应和滞后效应，忽视了基本面的隐忧，交易或难持续。美联储内部对软着陆仍有较高共识，认为市场高估了通胀下降的斜率，加息虽已进入“慢车道”，但通胀的粘性或增加其“矫枉过正”的风险。
文本选自：The Economist（经济学人）作者：Unknown原文标题：Could America’s economy escape recession?原文发布时间：24 Jul. 2023关键词：美国 经济 衰退
精听党带着问题听
1.“认真钻研”用英语可以怎么表达？2. 如何理解段二中的“wrestle with”？3. 目前美联储已将短期利率提升到多少了？
精听党选段赏析
标题解读
Could America’s economy escape recession?
美国经济能否避免衰退?
recession
n. 经济衰退；1. The country is currently facing a severe recession. 这个国家目前面临着严重的经济衰退。
段一
As covid-19 spread throughout the world three years ago, many pored over the history of a previous pandemic, the Spanish flu of 1918-19, for clues about how the disaster would unfold. Now that the plague has abated, history may also provide a few lessons for the aftermath. As the first world war and the Spanish flu receded, interest rates were low and government spending high. Inflation surged. In order to bring prices back under control, America’s central bankers cranked rates up, triggering a severe recession. The Federal Reserve described its actions in 1921 as “painful but…unavoidable” following “an unprecedented orgy of extravagance”.
pore over 认真钻研，仔细阅读；
pandemic n. 大流行病；1. The pandemic has caused widespread disruption to daily life. 大流行病给日常生活造成了广泛的混乱。
plague n. 瘟疫，传染病；鼠疫（尤指腺鼠疫）；（老鼠或昆虫等肆虐造成的）灾害，祸患； 普遍的祸害；烦恼事；
abate vi. 减弱；1. The storm has abated and it is safe to go outside now. 风暴已经减弱，现在可以安全地走到外面了。
aftermath n.（战争、风暴、事故的）后果，余波；
recede vi. 逐渐远离，渐渐退去；（质量）下降，（问题或疾病等）逐渐减弱；
inflation n. 通货膨胀；1. The government is taking measures to control inflation. 政府正在采取措施控制通货膨胀。
surge vi. 急剧上升；飞涨；激增；1. Share prices surged. 股价猛涨。
crank up 提高，增加；1. crank v. 转动（内燃机的）曲轴；用曲柄转动（或启动）；把（轴、棒等）弄弯；猛拉；
He cranked the engine and the car started. 他猛拉发动机，汽车启动了。
unprecedented adj. 前所未有的；1. The pandemic has caused an unprecedented level of disruption. 大流行病造成了前所未有的混乱程度。
orgy n. 狂欢；放荡；1. It was reminiscent of a scene from a Roman orgy. 这让人联想起罗马狂欢会的一个场面。
extravagance n. 奢侈；1. She was known for her extravagance and love of luxury. 她以奢侈和对奢华的热爱而闻名。
参考译文
三年前，随着新冠肺炎在全世界的传播，许多人仔细研究了前一次大流行病的历史，即1918-1919年的西班牙流感，以寻找这场灾难将如何发生的线索。既然大流行病已经消退，历史或许也会为其后果提供一些教训。随着第一次世界大战和西班牙流感逐渐远去，利率很低，政府支出很高。通胀飙升。为了控制物价，美国中央银行提高了利率，引发了严重的经济衰退。美联储将1921年的行动描述为一种“痛苦但……不可避免的（行为）”，在这之前发生的是 “前所未有的奢侈狂欢”。
段二
These days Fed officials tend to avoid the word orgy, but they are wrestling with similar circumstances. They have been raising rates at the fastest pace since the early 1980s. Hawkish economists argue that, to quell inflation, the Fed will have to raise them yet higher, even though that would certainly raise unemployment and probably induce a recession. Doves counter that the Fed has already gone too far and that further economic pain is unnecessary. A third possibility, that the Fed is getting things just right, and that the economy will slow and inflation dissipate without a recession (a “soft landing” in the jargon), was until recently seen as nigh on impossible.
wrestle with 全力对付；努力克服；
hawkish adj. 鹰派的；1. The president has adopted a hawkish stance on foreign policy. 总统在外交政策上采取了鹰派立场。
quell vt. 制止，镇压；消除，减轻（恐惧、担忧等）；1. The government is taking measures to quell the unrest. 政府正在采取措施平息动乱。
induce vt. 引发；1. The medication can induce drowsiness. 这种药物会引发嗜睡。
doves n. 鸽派；1. The doves in the government are advocating for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. 政府中的鸽派正在倡导和平解决冲突。
counter vt. 反驳，驳斥；抵制，抵消；
dissipate vi. 消散；1. The fog will dissipate as the sun rises. 随着太阳升起，雾气将会消散。
jargon n. 行话；1. He used a lot of technical jargon that I didn’t understand. 他使用了很多我不懂的技术行话。
nigh adv. 几乎；接近；
参考译文
如今，美联储官员倾向于避免使用“狂欢”这个词，但他们也在努力应对类似的情况。自上世纪80年代初以来，他们一直在以最快的速度加息。鹰派经济学家认为，为了抑制通胀，美联储将不得不进一步提高利率，尽管这肯定会推高失业率，并可能引发经济衰退。鸽派反驳说，美联储已经走得太远了，没有必要再给经济带来痛苦。第三种可能性是，美联储做得恰到好处，经济将放缓，通胀将消失，而不会出现衰退（行话叫“软着陆”）。直到最近，人们还认为这种可能性几乎是不可能的。
段三
The odds are still stacked against it. Since March 2022 the Fed has lifted short-term interest rates from 0% to 5%. Such rapid jumps tend to go hand-in-hand with recessions. As higher rates raise the cost of borrowing, they drag down both spending by consumers and investment by companies.
odds n. 可能性；1. The odds of winning the lottery are very low. 中彩票的可能性非常低。2. The odds are stacked against… 形势对……不利；
hand-in-hand adv. 手拉手地；1. They walked hand-in-hand along the beach. 他们手拉手地沿着海滩散步。
drag down 拖累；1. His poor performance is dragging down the whole team. 他的表现不佳拖累了整个团队。
参考译文
软着陆的可能性仍然很低。自2022年3月以来，美联储已将短期利率从0%上调至5%。这种快速增长往往与经济衰退密切相关。由于较高的利率提高了借贷成本，它们拖累了消费者的支出和企业的投资。
精听党每日单词
recession
/rɪˈseʃ(ə)n/ n. 经济衰退；
pore over
认真钻研，仔细阅读；
pandemic
/pænˈdemɪk/ n. 大流行病；
plague
/pleɪɡ/ n. 瘟疫，传染病；鼠疫（尤指腺鼠疫）；（老鼠或昆虫等肆虐造成的）灾害，祸患； 普遍的祸害；烦恼事；
abate
/əˈbeɪt/ vi. 减弱；
aftermath
/ˈæftərmæθ/ n.（战争、风暴、事故的）后果，余波；
recede
/rɪˈsiːd/ vi. 逐渐远离，渐渐退去；（质量）下降，（问题或疾病等）逐渐减弱；
inflation
/ɪnˈfleɪʃ(ə)n/ n. 通货膨胀；
surge
/sɜːrdʒ/ vi. 急剧上升；飞涨；激增；
crank up
提高，增加；
unprecedented
/ʌnˈpresɪdentɪd/ adj. 前所未有的；
orgy
/ˈɔːrdʒi/ n. 狂欢；放荡；
extravagance
/ɪkˈstrævəɡəns/ n. 奢侈；
wrestle with
全力对付；努力克服；
hawkish
/ˈhɔːkɪʃ/ adj. 鹰派的；
quell
/kwel/ vt. 制止，镇压；消除，减轻（恐惧、担忧等）；
induce
/ɪnˈduːs/ vt. 引发；
doves
/dʌvz; doʊvz/ n. 鸽派；
counter
/ˈkaʊntər/ vt. 反驳，驳斥；抵制，抵消；
dissipate
/ˈdɪsɪpeɪt/ vi. 消散；
jargon
/ˈdʒɑːrɡən/ n. 行话；
nigh
/naɪ/ adv. 几乎；接近；
odds
/ɑːdz/ n. 可能性；
hand-in-hand
/hænd ɪn hænd/ adv. 手拉手地；
drag down
拖累；
精听党文化拓展
本周周一，全美商业经济协会(NABE)的调查结果显示，高达71%的受访者认为，美国经济衰退的可能性低于50%。值得注意的是，这与NABE在4月份公布的调查结果相比有明显的转变。当时，预计经济陷入衰退和持有相反观点的受访者大约各占一半。
据彭博调查显示，多数受访商业经济师认为，美国在未来12个月内陷入衰退的可能性在50%或以下。在与通胀相关的指标方面，虽然多数受访者认为，工资在第二季度没有变化，但有49%的人认为，第二季度的物价会上涨，高于4月份调查时的40%。也有更大比率的受访者预计，未来三个月物价将持续上涨。
调查也显示，在受雇于多个行业的受访者中，有更大比率透露所属公司的利润率有所增加。也有更多受访者说，他们把近期上涨的部分或全部成本转嫁给消费者。
NABE在6月30日至7月12日收集了52名成员的回应，超过四分之一的人认为，美国在未来一年陷入衰退的可能性为25%或以下。
本周周一公布的数据显示，美国和欧洲7月企业活动放缓，暗示两国央行可能已接近升息周期的尾声。
精听党每日美句
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
预防胜于治疗。