Heavy lift
NASA is an obvious target for Elon Musk’s axe
NASA 俨然已成为埃隆·马斯克削减开支的靶心
Its Moon programme is a mess. But DOGE is likely to struggle to cut it to size
其月球计划举步维艰。但政府效率部（DOGE ）想要如愿以偿恐怕并非易事
They say you should do something you love. Jared Isaacman, a tech billionaire nominated on December 4th as Donald Trump’s choice to run NASA, is so keen on space that he has spent hundreds of millions of dollars of his own money to go there not once, but twice.
人们常说，应该做自己热爱的事。12月4日，唐纳德·特朗普提名科技亿万富翁贾里德·艾萨克曼（Jared Isaacman）为美国航空航天局（NASA）局长。艾萨克曼痴迷太空，不惜斥资数百亿美元，先后两次进入太空。
But Mr Isaacman did not go into space using a NASA rocket. Instead he bought propulsion and spaceships from SpaceX, a private firm whose cheap, reusable launchers have revolutionised the space business. Those experiences seem likely to influence how Mr Isaacman would run NASA.
不过，艾萨克曼并非乘坐 NASA 火箭遨游太空，而是从 SpaceX 这家私营公司购买推进系统和宇宙飞船。这家公司廉价且可重复使用的发射器，已彻底颠覆了太空产业的生态。这些经历很可能将深刻影响他未来管理 NASA 的方式。
SpaceX’s owner Elon Musk, to whom Mr Isaacman is close, is one of the two bosses of the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a presidential advisory commission tasked with cutting wasteful government spending. Everyone likes cutting government waste in theory and NASA offers plenty of targets. Yet, as both Mr Isaacson and Mr Musk are likely to discover, it is cutting waste in practice that is hard.
艾萨克曼的密友——SpaceX 的创始人埃隆•马斯克，是新成立的政府效率部（DOGE）两位负责人之一。这个委员会的使命是削减美国政府的不必要开支。理论上，人人都赞同减少行政浪费，而 NASA 无疑是一块肥肉。然而，正如艾萨克曼和马斯克即将领教的，削减开支说起来容易，做起来却困难重重。
To see why consider Artemis, the late-running, $93bn-and-counting programme to return astronauts to the Moon. It is organised around the giant Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, which is built from upcycled Space Shuttle parts, ostensibly to save money. Yet NASA’s inspector-general reckons the first four flights will cost $4.1bn each—perhaps 20 times the price of one of SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rockets.
要理解其中的困难，且看阿尔忒弥斯（Artemis） 计划：这个迟迟未能起飞、已耗资930亿美元的重返月球项目，围绕着太空发射系统（SLS）重型火箭，号称通过回收航天飞机零件来节省成本。然而，NASA 监察长估计，头四次飞行每次将耗资41亿美元，几乎是 SpaceX 猎鹰重型运载火箭价格的20倍。
Artemis is also saddled with a pointless, make-work space station near the Moon, the Lunar Gateway. The crew capsule, Orion, has absorbed over $25bn in funding over 20 years yet still does not function: a problem with its heat shield seems certain to cause delays. Even the relatively simple job of building a mobile tower to hold the SLS upright has been a disaster. Budgeted at $383m, for completion in 2023, the current cost estimate is $2.7bn, to be ready six years late.
阿尔忒弥斯计划还包括一个毫无意义的月球门户空间站 （Lunar Gateway）。猎户座飞船（Orion ）在20年间已耗费了250亿美元，却仍未正常运转：其隔热罩问题注定将导致延误。就连支撑 SLS 火箭的移动塔发射塔这样相对简单的工作也成了一场灾难。最初预算3.83亿美元，计划2023年完工，如今成本估算已飙升至27亿美元，且将推迟6年交付。
Old NASA hands admit Artemis is a mess. But it has proved impossible to kill, or even modify, despite the fact that the state of the art has left it further and further behind. When in 2019 Jim Bridenstine, then NASA’s boss, floated the idea that the Falcon Heavy might be able to get astronauts to the Moon sooner than the SLS, he nearly lost his job.
经验丰富的 NASA 老手们也坦诚阿尔忒弥斯计划已是一团乱麻。尽管技术进步日新月异，这个项目却始终无法叫停或改动。2019年，时任 NASA 局长吉姆•布里登斯廷（ Jim Bridenstine）提出猎鹰重型运载火箭可能比 SLS 更快将宇航员送上月球时，险些丢掉饭碗。
He was dressed down by Richard Shelby, then a senator from Alabama, home to the NASA centre that manages the SLS. For although NASA is a space agency, it is also a well-engineered machine for distributing pork. When NASA was founded in 1958 it established centres across America, cannily recruiting a phalanx of congressional bodyguards who would be keen to preserve high-paying jobs in their constituencies. These days, as Mr Shelby demonstrated, it is the bodyguards who run the show.
他遭到来自阿拉巴马州、管理 SLS 的 NASA 中心所在地的参议员理查德•谢尔比（Richard Shelby ）的当面训斥。虽然 NASA 表面上是一个航天机构，实际上已然成为分配政治利益的精密机器。1958年成立之初，NASA 就在美国各地建立中心，精心笼络了一批国会"保镖"，以确保辖区内的高薪工作得以保留。如今，正如谢尔比所示，这些"保镖"早已成为实际的操盘手。
Mr Isaacson and Mr Musk certainly have the experience and the zeal to whip Artemis into shape. Unfortunately, it is far from clear whether that will be enough to overcome Congress, which exercises control over NASA’s budget and which looks on delivering goodies to constituents as a higher purpose.
艾萨克曼和马斯克固然具备改造阿尔忒弥斯计划的经验和热情，但能否撼动掌控 NASA 预算、更在乎为选区输送利益的国会，尚属未知。
And while Mr Isaacson and Mr Musk are well-suited to the task in some ways, in others the two friends are the worst people to take an axe to NASA. As the owner of SpaceX, the only plausible alternative, Mr Musk stands to benefit from cancelling the SLS. No matter how justified, it will be impossible to avoid accusations of self-dealing. That will give DOGE’s foes even more ammunition. Do not bet against Mr Trump eventually writing the whole thing off as too much trouble—and Artemis plodding on with its lumbering journey into space.
更何况，尽管两人在某些方面堪称改革的最佳人选，但在另一些方面又似乎是最糟糕的人选。作为 SpaceX 唯一可信的替代方案的所有者，马斯克取消 SLS 将直接令自身受益。无论理由多么正当，这种"谋私交易"的嫌疑都将难以洗脱。这恰恰为政府效率部的对手提供了更多弹药。
不妨拭目以待特朗普最终是否会认定这一切"麻烦不值得"——届时 阿尔忒弥斯计划很可能仍将笨拙地继续其太空征程。
END
来源：The Economist - Dec. 7th-13th, 2024
原文标题：NASA is an obvious target for Elon Musk’s axe
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