文本选自：The Economist（经济学人）
作者：Unknown
原文标题：American stocks are at their most expensive in decades
原文发布时间：13 Aug. 2023
American stocks are at their most expensive in decades
Try a little, and it is never too hard to argue that the stockmarket looks risky and a crash must be coming. But in the long run such arguments are usually best ignored. Since 1900 American shares have posted an average real return of 6.4% a year. Over three decades, that would transform the purchasing power of $1,000 into $6,400. Bonds, the main alternative, do not come close. With an average historical return of 1.7% a year, they would generate a measly $1,700. Cash would do worse still.
The lesson for today's investors, many of whom were caught out by this year's bull market, might seem obvious. Forget about a downturn that may or may not materialise. Just buy and hold stocks, and wait for returns that will erase any number of brief dips. Unfortunately, there is a catch. What matters today is not historical returns but prospective ones. And on that measure, shares now look more expensive—and thus lower-yielding—when compared with bonds than they have in decades.
Start with why stocks tend to outperform bonds. A share is a claim on a firm's earnings stretching into the future, which makes returns inherently uncertain. A bond, meanwhile, is a vow to pay a fixed stream of interest payments and then return the principal. The borrower might go bust; changes to interest rates or inflation might alter the value of the cash flows. But the share is the riskier prospect, meaning it needs to offer a higher return. The gap between the two is the "equity risk premium"—the 4.7 percentage points a year that stocks have historically earned over bonds.
美国股票正处于几十年来最昂贵的时期
精听党背景导读
股票市场是一个可以让人们一夜暴富或者顷刻间血本无归的地方！普通股通常简称为股票，代表了其持有人对于公司具有一定份额的所有权，代表了对公司的资产和收益具有的求偿权，发行和向公众销售股票是公司为了满足运营需要进行融资的一个重要途径。
在今年上半年表现强劲之后，美国股市经历了一段动荡时期。过去一周，美国三大股指涨跌不一。道琼斯工业平均指数累涨0.62%，报35281.40点；纳斯达克综合指数累跌1.90%，报13644.85点，为今年首次连续两周下跌；标普500指数累跌0.31%，报4464.05点。
文本选自：The Economist（经济学人）作者：Unknown原文标题：American stocks are at their most expensive in decades原文发布时间：13 Aug. 2023关键词：股票 债券 风险
精听党带着问题听
1.“相差甚远”用英语可以怎么表达？2. 如何理解段二中的“catch”？3. 为什么股票的表现往往好于债券？
精听党选段赏析
标题解读
American stocks are at their most expensive in decades
美国股票正处于几十年来最昂贵的时期
stock
n. 股票；
段一
Try a little, and it is never too hard to argue that the stockmarket looks risky and a crash must be coming. But in the long run such arguments are usually best ignored. Since 1900 American shares have posted an average real return of 6.4% a year. Over three decades, that would transform the purchasing power of $1,000 into $6,400. Bonds, the main alternative, do not come close. With an average historical return of 1.7% a year, they would generate a measly $1,700. Cash would do worse still.
try a little 试一试；
risky adj. 有危险（或风险）的；
crash n.（金融）暴跌；倒闭；破产；失败；
in the long run 从长远来看；
argument n. 争论；
an average real return 一个平均的实际回报；
purchasing power 购买力；
bond n. 债券；公债；
alternative n. 替代品；
come close 接近；
measly adj. 很小的；很少的；不足的；
still adv. 还；甚；
参考译文
试一试，你就会发现，股市看起来风险很大，崩盘一定会到来，这一点永远不会太难。但从长远来看，这样的争论通常最好被忽略。自1900年以来，美国股票的年平均实际回报率为6.4%。30年来看的话，这将把1000美元的购买力转化为6400美元。债券是主要的替代选择，但与之相差甚远。以每年1.7%的平均历史回报率计算，它们只能产生区区1,700美元。现金的情况则更糟。
段二
The lesson for today's investors, many of whom were caught out by this year's bull market, might seem obvious. Forget about a downturn that may or may not materialise. Just buy and hold stocks, and wait for returns that will erase any number of brief dips. Unfortunately, there is a catch. What matters today is not historical returns but prospective ones. And on that measure, shares now look more expensive—and thus lower-yielding—when compared with bonds than they have in decades.
lesson n. 教训；
bull market 牛市；
downturn n.（商业经济的）衰退，下降，衰退期；
materialise vi. 实现；发生；成为现实；
erase vt. 清除；消除；消灭；
dip n.（通常指暂时的）减少，下降，衰退；
catch n. 隐藏的困难；暗藏的不利因素；
prospective adj. 有望的；可能的；预期的；
lower-yielding adj. 弱收益的；低回报的；
参考译文
对现在的投资者来说，教训似乎是显而易见的，他们中的许多人在今年的牛市中陷入了困境。忘掉可能发生也可能不会发生的衰退吧。只需买入并持有股票，然后等待回报，这将消除任何数量的短暂下跌。不幸的是，这里有一个陷阱。现在重要的不是历史回报，而是预期回报。从这个角度来看，与债券相比，股票现在看起来比几十年前更贵，因此收益率也更低。
段三
Start with why stocks tend to outperform bonds. A share is a claim on a firm's earnings stretching into the future, which makes returns inherently uncertain. A bond, meanwhile, is a vow to pay a fixed stream of interest payments and then return the principal. The borrower might go bust; changes to interest rates or inflation might alter the value of the cash flows. But the share is the riskier prospect, meaning it needs to offer a higher return. The gap between the two is the "equity risk premium"—the 4.7 percentage points a year that stocks have historically earned over bonds.
outperform vt. 胜过；做得比…好；
claim n.（索款）要求；
earning n. 收入；所赚的钱；
stretch into 延伸至；
inherently adv. 内在地；
vow n. 誓，誓言，誓约；
principal n. 本金；
go bust 破产；1. bust adj. 破产；
interest rate 利率；
cash flow 现金流；
equity n.（公司的）普通股；（公司的）股本；资产净值；
risk premium 风险溢价；1. at a premium 超出平常价；溢价；
参考译文
先来说说为什么股票的表现往往好于债券。股票是对公司未来收益的一种要求，这使得回报具有内在的不确定性。与此同时，债券是一种承诺，承诺支付固定的利息，然后返还本金。借款人可能会破产。利率或通货膨胀的变化可能会改变现金流的价值。但股票的风险更大，这意味着它需要提供更高的回报。两者之间的差距就是“股票风险溢价”——从历史上看，股票每年比债券高出4.7个百分点。
精听党每日单词
stock
/stɑːk/ n. 股票；
try a little
试一试；
risky
/ˈrɪski/ adj. 有危险（或风险）的；
crash
/kræʃ/ n.（金融）暴跌；倒闭；破产；失败；
in the long run
从长远来看；
argument
/ˈɑːrɡjumənt/ n. 争论；
an average real return
一个平均的实际回报；
purchasing power
购买力；
bond
/bɑːnd/ n. 债券；公债；
alternative
/ɔːlˈtɜːrnətɪv/ n. 替代品；
come close
接近；
measly
/ˈmiːzli/ adj. 很小的；很少的；不足的；
still
/stɪl/ adv. 还；甚；
lesson
/ˈles(ə)n/ n. 教训；
bull market
牛市；
downturn
/ˈdaʊntɜːrn/ n.（商业经济的）衰退，下降，衰退期；
materialise
/mə'tiəriəlaiz/ vi. 实现；发生；成为现实；
erase
/ɪˈreɪs/ vt. 清除；消除；消灭；
dip
/dɪp/ n.（通常指暂时的）减少，下降，衰退；
catch
/kætʃ/ n. 隐藏的困难；暗藏的不利因素；
prospective
/prəˈspektɪv/ adj. 有望的；可能的；预期的；
lower-yielding
/ˈloʊər ˈjiːldɪŋ/ adj. 弱收益的；低回报的；
outperform
/ˌaʊtpərˈfɔːrm/ vt. 胜过；做得比…好；
claim
/kleɪm/ n.（索款）要求；
earning
/ˈɜːrnɪŋ/ n. 收入；所赚的钱；
stretch into
延伸至；
inherently
/ɪnˈherəntli/ adv. 内在地；
vow
/vaʊ/ n. 誓，誓言，誓约；
principal
/ˈprɪnsəp(ə)l/ n. 本金；
go bust
破产；
interest rate
利率；
cash flow
现金流；
equity
/ˈekwəti/ n.（公司的）普通股；（公司的）股本；资产净值；
risk premium
风险溢价；
精听党文化拓展
当前，与持有美债相比，持有美股的性价比是2007年10月以来最糟糕的。2007年10月这个时点至关重要，因为它是2008年金融危机爆发前夕，美国股市当时的历史最高点。
上述结论，来自股票风险溢价指标，也即标准普尔500指数的盈利收益率与10 年期美债收益率之间的差，目前约为1.59个百分点，是2007年10月以来的最低水平，远低于2008年以来3.5个百分点的平均差距。回顾2009年3月美股触底时，股票风险溢价飙升到7个百分点以上。据媒体援引贝莱德研究显示，1957年以来的股票风险溢价的平均值约为1.62个百分点。
整体来说，股票风险溢价越低，意味着接下来股市的前景可能会更暗淡，因为股票需要承诺比债券更高的回报，来弥补其更高的风险。去年以来，伴随着债券收益率的飙升，以及企业盈利前景的暗淡，股票的吸引力减弱了。当前，美联储面临着抗击通胀和防止全面银行业危机爆发的双重挑战，这两者都给美国股市的前景蒙上阴影。
精听党每日美句
Actions speak louder than words.
行动胜于空谈。