文本选自：The Economist（经济学人）
作者：Unknown
原文标题：Rising bond yields are exposing fiscal fantasy in Europe
原文发布时间：8 Oct. 2023
Rising bond yields are exposing fiscal fantasy in Europe
As the fear that interest rates could stay higher for longer sinks in, government-bond yields across the rich world are rising. America's ten-year Treasury yields, at about 4.7%, are at their highest since 2007. The Bank of Japan has ramped up its bond purchases to maintain its cap on yields. In Europe on October 4th the yield on ten-year German Bunds crossed 3% for the first time in more than a decade. Those on Italian debt are nearly 5%—the highest since the tail-end of the euro zone's sovereign-debt crisis in 2012. And that is a worry, because Italy is one of the bloc's most indebted member states and its government has not woken up to how its spending plans now look unsustainable.
Over the past 15 months a surge in inflation in the euro zone has been met by dramatic action from the European Central Bank (ECB), which has raised rates by 4.5 percentage points. Look at public spending, though, and you would not know that a battle against inflation is raging. Budgets ballooned in several big European countries as governments sought to help their citizens recover from lockdowns and an energy crunch. But even as those shocks have faded, deficits have remained wide.
France projects a budget shortfall of nearly 5% of GDP this year, and 4.4% next. Italy plans to run a deficit of 5.3% this year, and 4.3% in 2024. Its shortfall comes even as the country is on course to receive nearly €70bn ($74bn), equivalent to another 2% of annual GDP, from the EU's common pandemic-recovery fund.
不断上升的债券收益率暴露了欧洲的财政幻想
精听党背景导读
财联社讯，多年来，全球各地的那些高负债国家，持续享受着低利率带来的红利。不过眼下，一场“美国制造”的债市风暴却可能改变这一切。
伴随着美国经济不断复苏，美债收益率节节攀升，这也带动了全球各主要经济体的国债收益率水涨船高。然而，随之而来的债务成本激增，却可能令那些经济复苏本就摇摇欲坠的经济体陷入困境。
文本选自：The Economist（经济学人）作者：Unknown原文标题：Rising bond yields are exposing fiscal fantasy in Europe原文发布时间：8 Oct. 2023关键词：债券收益率 上涨 欧洲
精听党带着问题听
1.“财政幻想”用英语可以怎么表达？2. 如何理解第一段中的“sink in”？3. 美国目前十年期国债收益率约为多少？
精听党选段赏析
标题解读
Rising bond yields are exposing fiscal fantasy in Europe
不断上升的债券收益率暴露了欧洲的财政幻想
rising adj. 不断上升的，不断增长的；1. The rising cost of living is a concern for many families. 生活成本的不断上升让许多家庭感到担忧。
bond yields 债券收益率；
expose vt. 暴露，使显露；揭露，揭示；1. The documentary film aimed to expose the harsh living conditions in underprivileged communities. 这部纪录片旨在揭示贫困社区中恶劣的生活条件。
fiscal fantasy 财政幻想；
段一
As the fear that interest rates could stay higher for longer sinks in, government-bond yields across the rich world are rising. America’s ten-year Treasury yields, at about 4.7%, are at their highest since 2007. The Bank of Japan has ramped up its bond purchases to maintain its cap on yields. In Europe on October 4th the yield on ten-year German Bunds crossed 3% for the first time in more than a decade. Those on Italian debt are nearly 5%—the highest since the tail-end of the euro zone’s sovereign-debt crisis in 2012. And that is a worry, because Italy is one of the bloc’s most indebted member states and its government has not woken up to how its spending plans now look unsustainable.
sink in 被理解，被接受，渗透；1. It took a while for the gravity of the situation to sink in. 事态的严重性花了一些时间才被理解。
ten-year Treasury yields 十年期国债收益率；
ramp up 增加，提高；1. The company decided to ramp up production to meet high demand. 公司决定增加生产以满足高需求。
cap on yields 收益率的上限；1. cap n. 帽子；（对物件起保护作用的）罩，盖，套；最高限额；
The government imposed a cap on gasoline prices to control inflation. 政府对汽油价格实行了价格上限以控制通货膨胀。
German Bunds 德国国债；
tail-end n. 尾部，末端，晚期；
sovereign-debt n. 主权债务；1. The country faced a crisis of rising sovereign-debt levels. 该国面临主权债务水平上升的危机。
bloc n. 集团，阵营；1. The trading bloc agreed to reduce trade barriers among its member countries. 这个贸易集团同意减少其成员国之间的贸易壁垒。
indebted adj. 负债的，欠债的；1. The company became increasingly indebted due to its expansion efforts. 由于公司的扩张努力，公司负债越来越多。
参考译文
随着对利率可能在更长时间内保持高位的担忧逐渐加深，发达国家的政府债券收益率正在上升。美国十年期国债收益率约为4.7%，处于2007年以来的最高水平。日本央行加大了债券购买力度，以维持收益率上限。10月4日，欧洲10年期德国国债收益率十多年来首次突破3%。意大利债券的收益率接近5%，为2012年欧元区主权债务危机结束以来的最高水平。这是一个令人担忧的问题，因为意大利是欧盟负债最多的成员国之一，其政府还没有意识到其支出计划现在看起来是不可持续的。
段二
Over the past 15 months a surge in inflation in the euro zone has been met by dramatic action from the European Central Bank (ECB), which has raised rates by 4.5 percentage points. Look at public spending, though, and you would not know that a battle against inflation is raging. Budgets ballooned in several big European countries as governments sought to help their citizens recover from lockdowns and an energy crunch. But even as those shocks have faded, deficits have remained wide.
surge in inflation 通货膨胀激增；1. The surge in inflation eroded the purchasing power of consumers. 通货膨胀的激增侵蚀了消费者的购买力。
raging adj. 猛烈的；肆虐的；1. The raging storm caused extensive damage to the coastal areas. 猛烈的风暴对沿海地区造成了广泛的破坏。
balloon vi. 激增；突然长胖；膨胀，鼓起来；
seek vi. 寻找；谋求；1. She sought help from her friends when she was in trouble. 她在困境中向朋友寻求帮助。
energy crunch 能源危机；1. The country faced an energy crunch due to a disruption in its oil supply. 该国因石油供应中断而面临能源危机。
fade vi. 褪色；减弱；逐渐消失；1. The paint on the old building has started to fade due to years of exposure to the sun. 老建筑上的油漆因多年暴露在阳光下而开始褪色。
deficit n. 赤字；不足；亏损；1. The government had to address the budget deficits to stabilize the economy. 政府必须解决预算赤字问题以稳定经济。
参考译文
在过去的15个月里，欧洲中央银行（ECB）采取了戏剧性的行动，将利率提高了4.5个百分点，以应对欧元区通胀的飙升。然而，看看公共支出，你不会知道对抗通胀的战斗正在激烈进行。几个欧洲大国的预算激增，因为政府试图帮助其公民从封锁和能源危机中恢复过来。但是，即使这些冲击已经消退，赤字仍然很大。
段三
France projects a budget shortfall of nearly 5% of GDP this year, and 4.4% next. Italy plans to run a deficit of 5.3% this year, and 4.3% in 2024. Its shortfall comes even as the country is on course to receive nearly €70bn ($74bn), equivalent to another 2% of annual GDP, from the EU’s common pandemic-recovery fund.
project vt. 预测；投射；规划；1. Economists project a significant increase in GDP for the coming year. 经济学家预测未来一年国内生产总值将显著增长。
budget shortfall 预算不足；1. The government had to make significant cuts in spending to address the budget shortfall. 政府不得不大幅削减开支以应对预算不足。
on course to 朝着…的方向；正在努力实现…；1. The company is on course to meet its quarterly sales targets. 该公司正朝着实现季度销售目标的方向努力。
pandemic-recovery fund 流行病恢复基金；
参考译文
法国预计今年的预算缺口将接近GDP的5%，明年将达到4.4%。意大利计划今年的赤字为5.3%，2024年为4.3%。尽管该国即将从欧盟共同流行病恢复基金中获得近700亿欧元（740亿美元），相当于年度GDP的另外2%，但这一缺口仍然存在。
精听党每日单词
rising
/ˈraɪzɪŋ/ adj. 不断上升的，不断增长的；
bond yields
债券收益率；
expose
/ɪkˈspoʊz/ vt. 暴露，使显露；揭露，揭示；
fiscal fantasy
财政幻想；
sink in
被理解，被接受，渗透；
ten-year Treasury yields
十年期国债收益率；
ramp up
增加，提高；
cap on yields
收益率的上限；
German Bunds
德国国债；
tail-end
/ˌteɪl ˈend/ n. 尾部，末端，晚期；
sovereign-debt
/ˈsɑːvrɪn det/ n. 主权债务；
bloc
/blɑːk/ n. 集团，阵营；
indebted
/ɪnˈdetɪd/ adj. 负债的，欠债的；
surge in inflation
通货膨胀激增；
raging
/ˈreɪdʒɪŋ/ adj. 猛烈的；肆虐的；
balloon
/bəˈluːn/ vi. 激增；突然长胖；膨胀，鼓起来；
seek
/siːk/ vi. 寻找；谋求；
energy crunch
能源危机；
fade
/feɪd/ vi. 褪色；减弱；逐渐消失；
deficit
/ˈdefɪsɪt/ n. 赤字；不足；亏损；
project
/ˈprɑːdʒekt; prəˈdʒekt/ vt. 预测；投射；规划；
budget shortfall
预算不足；
on course to
朝着…的方向；正在努力实现…；
pandemic-recovery fund
流行病恢复基金；
精听党文化拓展
眼下美债收益率的持续攀升，很容易令人联想到2013年时那场对市场造成严重破坏的“缩减恐慌”(taper tantrum)，时任美联储主席的伯南克当时暗示，购债计划将在未来某个时候缩减，美债随即遭遇大举抛售。
尽管成因并不相同，但眼下对市场造成的混乱，却似乎颇有异曲同工之处。对此，汇丰控股(HSBC Holdings Plc)固定收益研究主管Steve Major表示，这一次债券市场之所以变得难以控制，原因是美国出台了数万亿美元的财政刺激计划。
“尽管人们在谈论又一轮‘缩减恐慌’，但与2013年时不同的是，这一次是政府激进的财政宽松导致的。我们或许可以称之为‘财政恐慌’?“Major表示，“无论是什么原因，高收益率都不会对经济有所帮助。”
瑞银全球财富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)信贷主管Thomas Wacker指出，任何利率成本的增加都会降低各国的财政空间，占用本可用于投资和改革的资金，并导致未来赤字大幅增加。债务可持续性已成为一个愈发令人忧心的问题。
而最终，这一切可能倒逼央行不得不进一步加码刺激。
Nash表示，“一段时间的勒紧裤腰带可能会损害经济复苏，最终需要各国央行出台更多刺激措施。市场未来将不得不寻求撙节措施。债务太多了。到目前为止，经济复苏掩盖了这一点，但市场的脆弱性正在加剧。”
精听党每日美句
"The only way to do great work is to love what you do." - Steve Jobs
“要做出伟大的工作，唯一的方式就是热爱你所做的一切。”——史蒂夫·乔布斯