美国大选落下帷幕，78岁的特朗普宣布获胜，将重返白宫，这对中国会有什么影响？
外刊原文
A Trade-Off for China Focuses on Two Issues
Whoever wins, the next U.S. president will be a hawk on China. But the people I speak to in Beijing are divided about which candidate would be better for China. The trade-off centers on two issues: tariffs and Taiwan.
Chinese economic officials are very aware that Trump has called for blanket tariffs on China’s exports, which could pose a serious threat to China’s economy. This is a country that is enormously dependent on foreign demand, especially from the United States, to keep its factories running and its workers employed. Manufacturing creates a lot of wealth, and it offsets China’s very serious housing market crash.
Meanwhile, the Chinese foreign policy world sees advantages to Trump’s winning the election.
China feels increasingly hemmed in by U.S. efforts, particularly by the Biden administration, to strengthen alliances with many of China’s neighbors: Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India and, above all, Taiwan. Harris would probably continue those efforts. Trump is much less committed to building and maintaining international alliances.
Trump’s Tariff Levels Could Upend Trade
Trump says “tariff” is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary. More beautiful than love, more beautiful than respect.”
So this election is, among other things, a referendum on the entire global trade system, with U.S. voters making a choice that could affect the entire world.
Harris, if elected, would maintain targeted tariffs on Chinese goods on national security grounds. Trump is promising something much, much more aggressive, setting tariff levels that haven’t been seen in nearly a century: 10% to 20% on most foreign products, and 60% or more on goods made in China.
This would hit more than $3 trillion in U.S. imports, and probably cause multiple trade wars, as other countries retaliate with tariffs of their own. Most economists say we could end up with more tariffs, less trade, lower income and growth — a poorer world, essentially.
Can Trump just do that? Yes, he can. He has broad legal authority. And that would mean the United States is undermining the big international trade rules that it helped to create. — ANA SWANSON
外刊精读
Whoever wins, the next U.S. president will be a hawk on China. But the people I speak to in Beijing are divided about which candidate would be better for China. The trade-off centers on two issues: tariffs and Taiwan.
● hawk 本意是“鹰”，引申为“（主张使用武力或强硬手段的）鹰派人物”，英文释义为：In politics, if you refer to someone as a hawk, you mean that they believe in using force and violence to achieve something, rather than using more peaceful or diplomatic methods.
Both hawks and doves have expanded their conditions for ending the war. 鹰派和鸽派都已详述了他们结束战争的条件。
hawk 的一个高频表达是 watch xx like a hawk，“密切监视”，If you watch someone like a hawk, you observe them very carefully, usually to make sure that they do not make a mistake or do something you do not want them to do.
● trade-off 名词，柯林斯的英文释义为：A trade-off is a situation where you make a compromise between two things, or where you exchange all or part of one thing for another，表示“妥协，交换”。牛津的英文释义为：the act of balancing two things that you need or want but which are opposed to each other ，表示“（在需要而又相互对立的两者间的）权衡，协调”。其动词短语形式是trade off，一个高频表达是make a trade-off。
She said that she'd had to make a trade-off between her job and her family. 她说她必须平衡好工作和家庭。
Chinese economic officials are very aware that Trump has called for blanket tariffs on China’s exports, which could pose a serious threat to China’s economy. This is a country that is enormously dependent on foreign demand, especially from the United States, to keep its factories running and its workers employed. Manufacturing creates a lot of wealth, and it offsets China’s very serious housing market crash.
● blanket，本意指用来铺床或披在身上保暖的“床毯、毛毯”，注意和carpet（用来铺地板的厚织物地毯）、rug（小地毯或盖腿的小毯子）的区别。
blanket 的引申义指“ 厚层；厚的覆盖层”，英文释义为a thick layer or covering of sth。
a blanket of fog/snow/cloud 厚厚的一层雾╱雪╱云
文中的blanket 作形容词， 熟词僻义，表示“包括所有情形（或人员）的；总括的；综合的”，英文释义为：including or affecting all possible cases, situations or people。
a blanket refusal 完全拒绝
blanket rules 通用规定
《经济学人》有一个例句：In 2022 President Joe Biden built on the framework of those sanctions to introduce a blanket ban on the sales of advanced semiconductors to all companies in China. 2022年，拜登总统在这些制裁框架的基础上，全面禁止向中国所有公司销售先进半导体。
China feels increasingly hemmed in by U.S. efforts, particularly by the Biden administration, to strengthen alliances with many of China’s neighbors: Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India and, above all, Taiwan. Harris would probably continue those efforts. Trump is much less committed to building and maintaining international alliances.
● feel/be hemmed in 被包围，受到束缚
《经济学人》有一个例句：The Arctic Ocean covers high latitudes3, including the North Pole itself, and is hemmed in 4 by land masses. 北冰洋覆盖高纬度地区，包括北极本身，并被大片陆地包围着。
TED例句：But as Unique showed me, it is far more radical and dangerous to have hope than to live hemmed in by fear. 但就像尤妮克让我意识到的，比起生活在恐惧的阴影里，希望是危险的。
雅思写作例句：Some parents feel hemmed-in by their daily routines. 很多父母感觉他们被工作束缚住了。
《孙子兵法》中有一句：“衢地合交，绝地无留，围地则谋”，大意是身处四通八达之地，应结交诸侯；在绝地处不可停留，遇到狭窄易被敌方包围之地，则要巧出奇谋。这句话的英译就用到了hemmed-in：
Sun suggests, "Join hands with your allies. Do not linger in dangerously isolated positions. In hemmed-in situations, you must resort to stratagem."
Trump’s Tariff Levels Could Upend Trade
● upend /ʌpˈend/ v. 使颠倒，颠覆，倒放；使某人跌倒，故意绊倒，铲倒某人 （to turn sb/sth upside down）
FT例句：In its World Economic Outlook, the fund said prospects had “worsened significantly”, and risks had intensified everywhere, raising the chances of even lower growth and more rapid price rises, and upending the fund’s view that there would be a stronger recovery from the pandemic this year. 该组织在其《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)中表示，前景已“显著恶化”，全球各地的风险都在加大，提升了经济增长进一步放缓和价格更快上涨的发生几率，并颠覆了该组织关于今年全球经济将从疫情中更强劲地复苏的观点。
Harris, if elected, would maintain targeted tariffs on Chinese goods on national security grounds. Trump is promising something much, much more aggressive, setting tariff levels that haven’t been seen in nearly a century: 10% to 20% on most foreign products, and 60% or more on goods made in China.
● grounds，熟词僻义，单数形式是ground，表示“充分的理由；根据” （a good or true reason for saying, doing or believing sth），其高频表达为on…grounds / on grounds of，表示原因，“以……为由，基于……的原因”。
《经济学人》一篇关于中国的文章有这样一个例句：China's employment law prohibits discrimination on grounds of ethnicity, sex, religion, disability, social background and health. Regional origin, however, is not mentioned. 中国《劳动法》禁止基于种族、性别、宗教、残疾、社会背景和健康等原因的歧视。但却没有提到地域。
on grounds of age 因年龄原因
have no grounds for complaint 没有理由抱怨
on health grounds 因健康原因
have grounds to do sth 表示“有充分的理由作某事”。
There are some grounds for optimism (about sth). 在英语议论文写作中，这个句型可以阐述关于某事物好的方面。
参考译文
中国的权衡主要集中在两个问题上
无论谁当选，下一任美国总统都将是对华鹰派。但我在北京接触到的人对于哪位候选人对中国更有利存在分歧。这种权衡主要集中在两个问题上：关税和台湾。
中国经济官员非常清楚，特朗普呼吁对中国出口商品征收全面关税，这可能对中国经济构成严重威胁。这个国家严重依赖国外需求，尤其是来自美国的需求，从而维持工厂的运转和工人的就业。制造业创造了大量财富，它抵消了中国非常严重的房地产市场崩-溃。
与此同时，中国外交政策界看到了特朗普赢得大选的好处。
美国、尤其是拜登政府努力加强与中国许多邻国的联盟，令中国日益感觉受到围困，这些邻国包括日本、韩国、菲律宾、印度，最重要的是台湾。哈里斯（贺锦丽）可能会继续这些努力。而特朗普对建立和维护国际联盟的承诺要少得多。
特朗普的关税水平可能颠覆贸易
特朗普说，“关税”是“字典里最美的词。比爱更美，比尊重更美。”
因此，抛开其他种种，这次选举是关于整个全球贸易体系的全民公投，美国选民做出的选择可能会影响整个世界。
哈里斯如果当选，将以国家安全为由维持对中国商品的定向关税。特朗普承诺采取更加激进的措施，设定了近一个世纪以来从未见过的关税水平：对大多数外国产品征收10%至20%的关税，对中国制造的商品征收60%或更高的关税。
这将打击超过3万亿美元的美国进口商品，并可能引发多场贸易战，因为其他国家也会以自己的关税作为报复。大多数经济学家表示，我们最终可能会面临更高的关税、更少的贸易、更低的收入和增长——从本质上讲，一个更贫穷的世界。
特朗普能做到吗？是的，他能。他拥有广泛的法律权威。这将意味着美国正在破坏它参与创建的大型国际贸易规则。
感谢大家阅读。
来源：纽约时报（节选）
原文标题：How the U.S. Election Matters for the Rest of the World
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