文本选自：The Economist（经济学人）
作者：Unknown
原文标题：How AI could save thousands of lives through weather forecasting
原文发布时间：28 Jul. 2023
How AI could save thousands of lives through weather forecasting
Maniac, a computer designed at Princeton after the second world war, could perform a blistering 10,000 calculations a second. This extraordinary power was applied to two main problems: modelling thermonuclear explosions and the Earth's weather. They were the two most consequential applications the machine's creators could imagine. It would have taken maniac the entire 13.8bn-year history of the universe to perform as many calculations as today's fastest computer can carry out in an hour.
But though their abilities and ambit have increased, today's supercomputers still see a great deal of their capacity devoted to weaponry and weather. Research from the World Bank and others puts the benefits of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at $162bn a year. Its success can be attested to by any modern farmer or military commander. It can also be felt in the fabric of everyday life. No smartphone lacks icons redolent of sun, rain, wind or cloud. Deciding to leave an umbrella at home on a forecaster's advice is no longer necessarily a triumph of hope over experience.
The application of machine learning and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) will improve things further. The supercomputers used for NWP calculate the next days' weather on the basis of current conditions, the laws of physics and various rules of thumb; doing so at a high resolution eats up calculations by the trillion with ridiculous ease. Now machine-learning systems trained simply on past weather data can more or less match their forecasts, at least in some respects. If advances in AI elsewhere are any guide, that is only the beginning.
人工智能如何通过天气预报拯救成千上万人的生命
精听党背景导读
天气预报和人工智能有着天然耦合的关系。天气预报需要大量的、多种多样的资料，人工智能天生就是处理大数据的工具；现有资料的时空数据密度不够，人工智能具有对不完全、不确定信息的推断能力。此外，人工智能还可以总结专家的知识经验，提高平均预测水平以及利用统计与数值模式中无法利用的抽象预报知识等。
更快速、更高效是天气预报坚持不懈的追求。但随着观测卫星、雷达和传感器网络持续不断地产生大量数据，如何处理海量的、多种多样的气象资料成为天气预报的一个挑战。而人工智能出色的大数据处理能力成为助力天气进一步精准预报的重要工具。
文本选自：The Economist（经济学人）作者：Unknown原文标题：How AI could save thousands of lives through weather forecasting原文发布时间：28 Jul. 2023关键词：AI 天气预报 数据处理
精听党带着问题听
1.“洋洋得意地”用英语可以怎么表达？2. 如何理解段三中的“rules of thumb”？3. 计算机的两大重要的应用方向是什么？
精听党选段赏析
标题解读
How AI could save thousands of lives through weather forecasting
人工智能如何通过天气预报拯救成千上万人的生命
AI abbr. 人工智能（artificial intelligence）；1. AI is changing the way we live and work. 人工智能正在改变我们的生活和工作方式。
forecasting n. 预测；预报；1. The weather forecasting was accurate and helped us plan our trip. 天气预报很准确，帮助我们计划了行程。
段一
Maniac, a computer designed at Princeton after the second world war, could perform a blistering 10,000 calculations a second. This extraordinary power was applied to two main problems: modelling thermonuclear explosions and the Earth’s weather. They were the two most consequential applications the machine’s creators could imagine. It would have taken maniac the entire 13.8bn-year history of the universe to perform as many calculations as today’s fastest computer can carry out in an hour.
maniac n. 疯子；1. He was acting like a maniac and scaring everyone. 他表现得像个疯子，把大家都吓坏了。
design vt. 设计；1. The building was designed by a famous architect. 这座建筑是由著名建筑师设计的。
second world war 第二次世界大战；1. My grandfather fought in the second world war. 我祖父参加过第二次世界大战。
blistering adj. 迅速的；
calculation n. 计算；1. He was good at making complex calculations. 他擅长进行复杂的计算。
extraordinary adj. 非凡的；1. She had an extraordinary talent for music. 她有非凡的音乐天赋。
apply vt. 应用；
thermonuclear adj. 热核的；1. The scientists were studying thermonuclear reactions. 科学家们正在研究热核反应。
consequential adj. 重要的，意义重大的；
application n. 应用；1. The application of new technology improved production efficiency. 新技术的应用提高了生产效率。
参考译文
二战后，普林斯顿大学设计的计算机“疯子”每秒可以进行1万次运算。这种非凡的能力被应用于两个主要问题：热核爆炸建模和地球天气。这是这台计算机的创造者所能想到的最重要的两种应用。要完成当今最快的计算机在一小时内所能完成的计算，需要这台计算机“疯子”花费整个宇宙历史的138亿年。
段二
But though their abilities and ambit have increased, today’s supercomputers still see a great deal of their capacity devoted to weaponry and weather. Research from the World Bank and others puts the benefits of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at $162bn a year. Its success can be attested to by any modern farmer or military commander. It can also be felt in the fabric of everyday life. No smartphone lacks icons redolent of sun, rain, wind or cloud. Deciding to leave an umbrella at home on a forecaster’s advice is no longer necessarily a triumph of hope over experience.
ambit n. 范围；1. The new law falls within the ambit of federal jurisdiction. 新法律属于联邦管辖范围内。
capacity n. 能力；1. Limited resources are restricting our capacity for developing new products. 有限的资源正制约着我们开发新产品的能力。
devote to 致力于；用于；1. devoted adj. 忠诚的；
He was a devoted husband and father. 他是一个忠诚的丈夫和父亲。
weaponry n. 武器装备；1. The army had advanced weaponry and equipment. 军队拥有先进的武器装备。
attest vt. <正式>证明，表明；<正式>（尤指在法庭上）证实；
fabric n. 布料，织物；构造，结构；
redolent adj. 使人想到的，使人联想起的；1. redolent of 使人联想起；
triumph n. 巨大成功，重大胜利；（胜利或成功的）喜悦，狂喜；1. in triumph 胜利地；洋洋得意地；
参考译文
但是，尽管计算机的能力和范围有所增加，如今的超级计算机仍然将它们很大一部分能力用于武器和天气。世界银行和其他机构的研究表明，数值天气预报每年带来的收益为1620亿美元。任何现代农民或军事指挥官都可以证明数值天气预报的成功。数值天气预报的成功也可以在日常生活的结构中感受到。没有哪款智能手机缺少太阳、雨、风或云的图标。听从天气预报员的建议，决定把雨伞留在家里，不再一定是希望战胜了经验。
段三
The application of machine learning and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) will improve things further. The supercomputers used for NWP calculate the next days’ weather on the basis of current conditions, the laws of physics and various rules of thumb; doing so at a high resolution eats up calculations by the trillion with ridiculous ease. Now machine-learning systems trained simply on past weather data can more or less match their forecasts, at least in some respects. If advances in AI elsewhere are any guide, that is only the beginning.
machine learning 机器学习；1. Machine learning is a rapidly growing field in computer science. 机器学习是计算机科学中快速发展的领域。
improve vt. 改善；超过，胜过；提高……的价值；1. The new policy was implemented to improve working conditions. 新政策的实施是为了改善工作条件。
further adv. 更进一步；1. We need to investigate further to find the truth. 我们需要进一步调查以查明真相。
basis n. 基础；1. The decision was made on the basis of the evidence presented. 这一决定是基于提交的证据做出的。
current adj. 当前的；1. The current situation is very challenging. 目前的形势非常具有挑战性。
rules of thumb 经验法则；
resolution n. 决心，决定；坚决，果断；（电视、照相机、显微镜等的）清晰度，分辨率；
eat up 吃光；耗尽；
ridiculous adj. 可笑的，荒谬的；
ease n. 容易；舒适，自在；1. with ease 不费力；熟练地；2. at ease 舒适；自由自在；心情轻松；
advance n. 前进；进步，进展；改善；
参考译文
机器学习和其他形式的人工智能的应用将进一步改善这种情况。数值天气预报使用的超级计算机根据当前条件、物理定律和各种经验法则计算未来几天的天气；在高分辨率下这样做可以轻松地消耗数万亿的计算量。现在，机器学习系统只要接受过去天气数据的训练，就能或多或少地与它们的预测相匹配，至少在某些方面是这样。如果其他地方的人工智能进步有什么指导意义的话，那也仅仅是个开始而已。
精听党每日单词
AI
abbr. 人工智能（artificial intelligence）；
forecasting
/ˈfɔːrkæstɪŋ/ n. 预测；预报；
maniac
/ˈmeɪniæk/ n. 疯子；
design
/dɪˈzaɪn/ vt. 设计；
second world war
第二次世界大战；
blistering
/ˈblɪstərɪŋ/ adj. 迅速的；
calculation
/ˌkælkjuˈleɪʃ(ə)n/ n. 计算；
extraordinary
/ɪkˈstrɔːrdəneri/ adj. 非凡的；
apply
/əˈplaɪ/ vt. 应用；
thermonuclear
/ˌθɜːrmoʊˈnuːkliər/ adj. 热核的；
consequential
/ˌkɑːnsɪˈkwenʃ(ə)l/ adj. 重要的，意义重大的；
application
/ˌæplɪˈkeɪʃ(ə)n/ n. 应用；
ambit
/ˈæmbɪt/ n. 范围；
capacity
/kəˈpæsəti/ n. 能力；
devote to
致力于；用于；
weaponry
/ˈwepənri/ n. 武器装备；
attest
/əˈtest/ vt. <正式>证明，表明；<正式>（尤指在法庭上）证实；
fabric
/ˈfæbrɪk/ n. 布料，织物；构造，结构；
redolent
/ˈredələnt/ adj. 使人想到的，使人联想起的；
triumph
/ˈtraɪʌmf/ n. 巨大成功，重大胜利；（胜利或成功的）喜悦，狂喜；
machine learning
机器学习；
improve
/ɪmˈpruːv/ vt. 改善；超过，胜过；提高……的价值；
further
/ˈfɜːrðər/ adv. 更进一步；
basis
/ˈbeɪsɪs/ n. 基础；
current
/ˈkɜːrənt/ adj. 当前的；
rules of thumb
经验法则；
resolution
/ˌrezəˈluːʃ(ə)n/ n. 决心，决定；坚决，果断；（电视、照相机、显微镜等的）清晰度，分辨率；
eat up
吃光；耗尽；
ridiculous
/rɪˈdɪkjələs/ adj. 可笑的，荒谬的；
ease
/iːz/ n. 容易；舒适，自在；
advance
/ædˈvæns/ n. 前进；进步，进展；改善；
精听党文化拓展
“更高更快更强”是天气预报不懈的追求，更高分辨率、更快给出结果、更准确的预测等追求考验着现代大气科学。国家气象中心高级工程师朱文剑指出：“人工智能凭借其超强的计算能力和强大的算法，在某些方面的能力已经远远超过了人类。”
比如，美国有一个关于雷暴生命史的实时预测模型做出的预报结果已明显优于人的主观经验，调查表明在该项业务上，预报员在面临模棱两可的情况下，更愿意相信人工智能的预报结果。
朱文剑介绍说，国外已实现基于深度神经网络和气象卫星观测资料的数据同化算法研发，在一定的准确率容忍范围内，与传统方法相比，人工智能方法的计算效率可大幅提高。近年来，欧洲中期天气预报中心较为全面地评估了人工智能技术在天气预报数值模式中各个技术环节的应用潜力，对人工智能的应用给出乐观的预期，并已在部分环节如物理过程参数化中开展技术试验。
据介绍，目前对于冰雹、短时强降水、雷暴大风等灾害性天气的临近预报预警（6小时以内），国外气象科学家基于人工智能技术，结合多种遥感观测和快速更新的数值模式预报资料，预报准确率已超过人类预报员，但这些技术还处于研究或实验阶段，尚未形成业务支撑能力。目前对于持续性暴雨、极端强度暴雨的预报则具有一定的难度，不过，行业从业者正在努力借助包括人工智能技术在内的多种技术攻克这一难题。
精听党每日美句
Live with smile, we will have unexpected harvest!
带着微笑生活，我们会有意想不到的收获！