文本选自：The Economist（经济学人）
作者：Unknown
原文标题：America may soon be spending more on debt service than defence
原文发布时间：12 Oct. 2023
America may soon be spending more on debt service than defence
The bond market is sending a hopeful message about the strength of the American economy—and, perhaps, raising alarm about America's unsustainable finances. The news is coming via surging rates on long-term bonds. When the Federal Reserve started raising its benchmark federal-funds rate in March 2022, long-term interest rates rose with it. This continued fairly steadily until the end of last year, when rates flattened out. Then in May, to the surprise of many investors, long-term rates began climbing once more. They show no sign of slowing. On October 11th the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds hit 4.7%, near a 16-year high.
Because bond prices and yields are inversely related, this is bad for bond investors, who are suffering "the greatest bond bear market of all time", according to Bank of America. But it is also bad for Uncle Sam. When bond yields rise, the cost of financing America's debt—now $26trn and growing—also goes up.
This would not be such a problem if America were putting its fiscal house in order. But estimates released on October 10th by the CBO show that the federal deficit ballooned to $2trn (7.6% of GDP) in the year to September 30th, up from $900bn (3.5%) the previous year. If interest rates and deficits do not come down, fiscal hawks warn, the cost of servicing America's debt could rocket, crowding out other spending. The CBO estimates that, even assuming a drop in rates, interest costs by 2028 will reach $1trn, or 3.1% of projected GDP—more than will be spent on defence.
美国可能很快在债务服务上的支出将超过国防开支
精听党背景导读
随着美债规模超过33万亿，利息支出很快就会成为政府最大的支出项目，这将对经济增长造成威胁，华尔街开始拉响警报……
由于不断膨胀的联邦赤字和大量发行国债，上个月美国债务规模达到了33万亿美元的历史新高。
可以肯定的是，债务上升本身并不会自动引起担忧，因为国家完全偿还巨额债务的情况并不常见。相反，更有意义的衡量标准可能是偿还债务的能力。
文本选自：The Economist（经济学人）作者：Unknown原文标题：America may soon be spending more on debt service than defence原文发布时间：12 Oct. 2023关键词：美国 债务 国防
精听党带着问题听
1. 目前美国十年期国债的收益率是多少？2.“债券收益率”用英语可以怎么表达？3. 如何理解段三中的“rocket”？
精听党选段赏析
标题解读
America may soon be spending more on debt service than defence
美国可能很快在债务服务上的支出将超过国防开支
debt service
债务偿还；债务服务；
段一
The bond market is sending a hopeful message about the strength of the American economy—and, perhaps, raising alarm about America’s unsustainable finances. The news is coming via surging rates on long-term bonds. When the Federal Reserve started raising its benchmark federal-funds rate in March 2022, long-term interest rates rose with it. This continued fairly steadily until the end of last year, when rates flattened out. Then in May, to the surprise of many investors, long-term rates began climbing once more. They show no sign of slowing. On October 11th the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds hit 4.7%, near a 16-year high.
bond market 债券市场；1. The bond market experienced a significant downturn due to rising interest rates. 由于利率上升，债券市场经历了严重的低迷。
raise alarm about 对…提出警告；1. Many experts are raising alarm about the potential impact of climate change on coastal cities. 许多专家对气候变化对沿海城市的潜在影响提出了警告。
surging rates 飙升的利率；1. Investors are concerned about the surging rates, as they can impact bond prices. 投资者担忧利率的飙升，因为这可能会影响债券价格。
benchmark n. 基准；1. The S&P 500 index is often used as a benchmark for the performance of the U.S. stock market. 标普500指数经常被用作衡量美国股市表现的基准。
federal-funds rate 联邦基金利率；1. The Federal Reserve's decision to raise the federal-funds rate had a ripple effect on other interest rates. 美联储提高联邦基金利率的决定对其他利率产生了连锁反应。
fairly adv. 相当地；
steadily adv. 稳定地；1. The company's profits have been steadily increasing over the past few years. 公司的利润在过去几年里稳步增长。
flatten out 变平，趋于稳定；1. After several months of rapid growth, the housing market started to flatten out. 经过几个月的快速增长后，房地产市场开始趋于稳定。
yield n. 产量；收益，利润，红利（或股息）率；1. bond yields 债券收益率；
16-year high 16年来的高点；1. The stock market reached a 16-year high before the sudden drop in prices. 股市在价格突然下跌之前达到了16年来的高点。
参考译文
债券市场正传递出关于美国经济实力的乐观信息——也许，同时也对美国不可持续的财务状况发出了警告。这一消息来自于长期债券利率的飙升。当联邦储备委员会于2022年3月开始提高其基准联邦基金利率时，长期利率随之上升。这种趋势一直持续到去年年底，当时的利率趋于稳定。然而在5月份，令许多投资者惊讶的是，长期利率再次开始攀升。它们没有放缓的迹象。10月11日，十年期国债的收益率达到4.7%，接近16年来的最高点。
段二
Because bond prices and yields are inversely related, this is bad for bond investors, who are suffering “the greatest bond bear market of all time”, according to Bank of America. But it is also bad for Uncle Sam. When bond yields rise, the cost of financing America’s debt—now $26trn and growing—also goes up.
inversely related 呈反比关系的；1. In the stock market, price and yield are often inversely related; when prices rise, yields tend to fall. 在股市中，价格和收益率通常呈反比关系；当价格上涨时，收益率往往下降。
bond bear market 债券熊市；
Uncle Sam 山姆大叔（美国政府的绰号）；
参考译文
美国银行（Bank of America）表示，由于债券价格和收益率呈反比关系，这对债券投资者来说是不利的，他们正在经历“有史以来最严重的债券熊市”。但这对山姆大叔也不利。当债券收益率上升时，为美国现有的并且还在增长的26万亿美元债务提供融资的成本也会上升。
段三
This would not be such a problem if America were putting its fiscal house in order. But estimates released on October 10th by the CBO show that the federal deficit ballooned to $2trn (7.6% of GDP) in the year to September 30th, up from $900bn (3.5%) the previous year. If interest rates and deficits do not come down, fiscal hawks warn, the cost of servicing America’s debt could rocket, crowding out other spending. The CBO estimates that, even assuming a drop in rates, interest costs by 2028 will reach $1trn, or 3.1% of projected GDP—more than will be spent on defence.
put…in order 整理；归类；1. Please put these files in order according to their dates. 请按照日期将这些文件整理好。
fiscal house 财政状况；财政体制；
federal deficit 联邦赤字；政府赤字；1. The country is currently facing a significant federal deficit, which is a cause for concern. 该国目前面临着严重的政府赤字，这令人担忧。
balloon vi. 膨胀；迅速增加；1. The company's profits have started to balloon in recent years due to successful marketing strategies. 由于成功的营销策略，公司的利润近年来开始迅速增加。
come down 下降；减少；1. The cost of living in the city has come down slightly, making it more affordable for residents. 城市的生活成本略有下降，使居民更能承受。
fiscal hawks 财政鹰派；强调财政纪律的人；1. Fiscal hawks argue that it is crucial to reduce government spending to prevent a growing deficit. 财政鹰派认为，为了防止赤字增加，减少政府支出至关重要。
rocket vi. 迅速上升；猛增；
crowd out 挤出；排挤；1. Increased government borrowing can sometimes crowd out private investment in the financial markets. 政府借款的增加有时会挤占金融市场上的私人投资。
参考译文
如果美国整顿财政，这就不会是一个问题。但根据国会预算办公室（CBO）10月10日发布的估算，截至9月30日的一年中，联邦赤字从前一年的9000亿美元（3.5%）激增至2万亿美元（占GDP的7.6%）。财政鹰派警告说，如果利率和赤字不降低，美国的债务服务成本可能飙升，挤占其他支出。国会预算办公室估计，即使利率下降，到2028年的利息成本将达到1万亿美元，或预计GDP的3.1%——这将超过将用于国防的支出。
精听党每日单词
debt service
债务偿还；债务服务；
bond market
债券市场；
raise alarm about
对…提出警告；
surging rates
飙升的利率；
benchmark
/ˈbentʃmɑːrk/ n. 基准；
federal-funds rate
联邦基金利率；
fairly
/ˈferli/ adv. 相当地；
steadily
/ˈstedəli/ adv. 稳定地；
flatten out
变平，趋于稳定；
yield
/jiːld/ n. 产量；收益，利润，红利（或股息）率；
16-year high
16年来的高点；
inversely related
呈反比关系的；
bond bear market
债券熊市；
Uncle Sam
山姆大叔（美国政府的绰号）；
put…in order
整理；归类；
fiscal house
财政状况；财政体制；
federal deficit
联邦赤字；政府赤字；
balloon
/bəˈluːn/ vi. 膨胀；迅速增加；
come down
下降；减少；
fiscal hawks
财政鹰派；强调财政纪律的人；
rocket
/ˈrɑːkɪt/ vi. 迅速上升；猛增；
crowd out
挤出；排挤；
精听党文化拓展
美国仍拥有全球最具流动性的债券市场，可以根据需要向投资者发行新债。
麦克金尼斯说，问题是当政府做出预算决定时，偿还债务必须排在其他事情之前。如果无法偿还债务，美国将面临违约的风险，就像今年6月份险些发生的那样。
以目前的水平来看，利息支出已经超过了联邦政府在青少年教育上的支出，而且在四年后，利息支出还将超过国防支出。她补充说，“当国会议员知道这一点时，他们将会给予更多关注。这是相当严重的警告信号”。
她继续说，如果CBO的估计是正确的，那么不仅联邦项目会遭到挤压，这还意味着经济将停滞不前，在国家安全等方面的投资能力也将减弱。
华尔街也开始拉响警报。最近，主要的债券评论员警告说，收益率将不得不继续上升，因为只有这样财政部才能继续吸引足够的资金来偿还不断增长的债务。这只会大幅增加借贷成本。
麦克金尼斯说，为了减少债务，必须对富裕和中等收入的美国人加税。与此同时，政府还必须削减开支，包括在必要时削减国防和社会福利支出等。
麦克金尼斯称，“我们知道该怎么做，现在有很多合理的计划。但我们没有这么做的政治意愿。在这种极端党派化的环境中，政客们忙着承诺他们不会做任何现在需要做的事情（指加税及削减福利等）”。
精听党每日美句
"The only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts of today." - Franklin D. Roosevelt
“对我们实现明天的唯一限制，将是我们今天的疑虑。”——富兰克林·D·罗斯福